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KC vs LAA

Kansas City Royals at Los Angeles Angels

Saturday, August 15, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the KC @ LAA simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

KANSAS CITYKC
0·0
LOS ANGELESLAA
TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

KC DUGOUTLAA DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

League Avg (R) vs HP

FB94.3
CH85

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

League Avg in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · LEAGUE AVG

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

LAA to win

45%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

LAA -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL LAA

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

LAA wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYLeague Avg at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 80 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

✓ CONFIRMED

Kansas City vs Los Angeles A Winner?

67%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEKC
LINEUP EDGELAA

KC STARTER

Noah Cameron

AVERAGE
5.6
PROJECTED Ks
104
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 26% · 17% whiffChangeup · 21% · 34% whiffCutter · 21% · 22% whiff

Watch out: 4-Seam Fastball is getting hit hard lately.

LAA STARTER

Ryan Johnson

SHAKY
3.1
PROJECTED Ks
83
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Cutter · 31% · 26% whiffSinker · 25% · 3% whiffSplit-Finger · 25% · 36% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Ryan Johnson grades poor (Pitching+ 83) vs Noah Cameron grades avg (Pitching+ 104)

KC LINEUP

  1. 1Nick Loftin (R)hit 60% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    39%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Bobby Witt Jr. (R)hit 71% · HR 15%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    30%

    3+ BASES

    21%

    4+ BASES

    34%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Jac Caglianone (L)hit 68% · HR 22%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    68%

    1+ HIT

    31%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    47%

    2+ BASES

    33%

    3+ BASES

    26%

    4+ BASES

    40%

    RBI

    19%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Salvador Perez (R)hit 62% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    32%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Isaac Collins (S)hit 57% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Michael Massey (L)hit 59% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    33%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Starling Marte (R)hit 58% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    19%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    29%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    28%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Luke Maile (R)hit 50% · HR 7%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    14%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    24%

    2+ BASES

    12%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    7%

    2+ RBIs

    29%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Tolbert (R)hit 59% · HR 11%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    26%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

LAA LINEUP

  1. 1Wade Meckler (L)hit 71% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    71%

    1+ HIT

    34%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    43%

    2+ BASES

    25%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    9%

    2+ RBIs

    48%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Mike Trout (R)hit 69% · HR 22%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    22%

    HOME RUN

    46%

    2+ BASES

    31%

    3+ BASES

    25%

    4+ BASES

    36%

    RBI

    17%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Nolan Schanuel (L)hit 69% · HR 8%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    69%

    1+ HIT

    30%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Zach Neto (R)hit 67% · HR 19%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    67%

    1+ HIT

    27%

    2+ HITS

    19%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    29%

    3+ BASES

    22%

    4+ BASES

    39%

    RBI

    18%

    2+ RBIs

    46%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Moisés Ballesteros (L)hit 64% · HR 13%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    64%

    1+ HIT

    25%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    38%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    35%

    RBI

    15%

    2+ RBIs

    37%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Josh Lowe (L)hit 61% · HR 15%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    61%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    15%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    33%

    RBI

    14%

    2+ RBIs

    36%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Denzer Guzman (R)hit 63% · HR 9%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    63%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    34%

    2+ BASES

    19%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Adam Frazier (L)hit 59% · HR 8%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    8%

    HOME RUN

    32%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    10%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Tyler Heineman (S)hit 55% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    55%

    1+ HIT

    17%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    13%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    22%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

KC LAA

Game Markets

KC @ LAA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

KC to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

LAA F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

60%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

60%

Run Line

LAA -1.5

30%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

55%

Team Total

LAA Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

KC projects to outscore LAA by 0.80 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 5.39, LAA 4.59
  • Noah Cameron (KC) vs Ryan Johnson (LAA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NC

Noah Cameron

KC SP · vs. LAA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

67%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

88%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

63%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 67% to reach 5+ against LAA
RJ

Ryan Johnson

LAA SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

12%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

0%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against KC
JC

Jac Caglianone

KC · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

35%

Total Bases

4+ bases

28%

RBIs

1+ RBI

42%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

20%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
MT

Mike Trout

LAA · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

22%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

33%

Total Bases

4+ bases

26%

RBIs

1+ RBI

37%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 22% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Noah Cameron
ZN

Zach Neto

LAA · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
WM

Wade Meckler

LAA · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

75%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

26%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

9%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Noah Cameron
BJ

Bobby Witt Jr.

KC · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

74%

Hits

2+ hits

36%

Total Bases

2+ bases

51%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

22%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 36% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
MB

Moisés Ballesteros

LAA · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

36%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 15% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
JL

Josh Lowe

LAA · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

64%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

34%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

14%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 15% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
NS

Nolan Schanuel

LAA · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

32%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 32% against 25% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Facing Noah Cameron
SP

Salvador Perez

KC · bats R · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

33%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 11% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats R
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
DG

Denzer Guzman

LAA · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
NL

Nick Loftin

KC · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 62%.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
TT

Tyler Tolbert

KC · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

36%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

27%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
MM

Michael Massey

KC · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

26%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 65%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
AF

Adam Frazier

LAA · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

22%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
SM

Starling Marte

KC · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

31%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

22%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
IC

Isaac Collins

KC · bats S · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

8%

Hits

1+ hits

60%

Hits

2+ hits

20%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

12%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 60% against 65%.

  • Batting 5 · bats S
  • Facing Ryan Johnson
TH

Tyler Heineman

LAA · bats S · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

57%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

28%

Total Bases

3+ bases

14%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

23%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 57% against 65%.

  • Batting 9 · bats S
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Noah Cameron
LM

Luke Maile

KC · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

13%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 65%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Facing Ryan Johnson

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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