MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Logan Webb · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Logan Webb · Under 20.5 <21 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Michael Lorenzen · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
COL @ SF · full-game reads
Moneyline
SF to win
64%
1st 5 Innings
SF F5
57%
Game Total
Over 8.5
57%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
SF -1.5
48%
Team Total
COL Over 4.5
40%
Team Total
SF Over 4.5
57%
THE READ
SF projects to outscore COL by 1.27 runs across 5,000 trials.
COL SP · vs. SF
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
0%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
29%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 2.4 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
SF SP · vs. COL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
78%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
61%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Marine air kills carry to RCF.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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