BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
65-57 · +3 AL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@SAT 7:15 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
60-64 · +5 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 3-7 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
78°F · 3mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sonny Gray
RHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
2.79
IP
125.2
K/9
7.9
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS3.60 ERA · 19.5% K · 7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
20%
20%
19%
18%
17%
CutterSweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveball
Jared Jones
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
5.03
IP
59.0
K/9
9.9
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS6.00 ERA · 24.8% K · 7.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
38%
33%
18%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Sonny Gray · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

-150 FanDuel60% book75% +15pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS PIT

Game Markets

BOS @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

48%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

47%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

37%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.58 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.20, PIT 4.38
  • Sonny Gray (BOS) vs Jared Jones (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SG

Sonny Gray

BOS SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

68%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against PIT
JJ

Jared Jones

PIT SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

6%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

23%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

28%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SONNY GRAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.711
vs Left-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.660
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.769K%23.5%

JARED JONES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.712
vs Left-handedK%28.7%OPS-against.732
BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.706K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs SONNY GRAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs JARED JONES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·PIT 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 1·PIT 3
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%PIT
BOS 34 · PIT 37 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-14PIT 8-4
2026-03-22BOS 6-3
2026-03-08PIT 9-7 · Slugfest
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS55¢ · 55%
PIT49¢ · 49%
Total 7.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5→5.5→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.343L15 team wOBA
+27 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

PIT OFFENSE

.290L15 team wOBA
-26 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT78° · 3mph in from CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
78°F
Wind3 mph in from CF
Humidity77%
Rain5%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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