WASHINGTONWSH
60-63 · +4 NL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@FRI 7:10 PM ETNYM HOME PARK
53-69 · +5 NL EAST · L2 · 6-4 L10
NEW YORKNYM
Weather
81°F · 2mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Andrew Alvarez
LHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.76
IP
69.1
K/9
8.4
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.40
L5 STARTS4.21 ERA · 14.7% K · 11.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
25%
14%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinker
Robert Stock
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+
ERA
10.13
IP
8.0
K/9
9.0
BB/9
5.6
WHIP
2.13
L5 STARTS10.13 ERA · 19.5% K · 12.2% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

WSH NYM

Game Markets

WSH @ NYM · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

NYM F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

NYM -1.5

37%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.15 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: WSH 4.54, NYM 4.61
  • Andrew Alvarez (WSH) vs Robert Stock (NYM)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AA

Andrew Alvarez

WSH SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

82%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against NYM
RS

Robert Stock

NYM SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

21%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

3%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against WSH

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

ANDREW ALVAREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.9%OPS-against.669
vs Left-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.725
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.689K%22.5%

ROBERT STOCK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%7.7%OPS-against.641
vs Left-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.115
WSH vs LHP (team)OPS.788K%23.5%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

NYM BATTERS vs ANDREW ALVAREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

WSH BATTERS vs ROBERT STOCK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
WSH 0·NYM 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
WSH 8·NYM 4
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%WSH
WSH 214 · NYM 174 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-21NYM 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-05-20WSH 8-4
2026-05-19WSH 9-6 · Slugfest
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
WSH49¢ · 49%
NYM55¢ · 55%
Total 8.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
WSH -1.5 ·
NYM +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

WSH OFFENSE

.312L15 team wOBA
-4 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

NYM OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-25 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT81° · 2mph out to LF
CITI FIELD
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.95 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Deep OF, dead air.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind2 mph out to LF
Humidity51%
Rain5%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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