BETFLYAISIGN IN
ST. LOUISSTL
61-60 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 7-3 L10
@FRI 2:20 PM ETCHC HOME PARK
71-51 · +2 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 8-2 L10
CHICAGOCHC
Weather
77°F · 7mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Matthew Liberatore
LHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
5.15
IP
113.2
K/9
8.7
BB/9
3.4
WHIP
1.52
L5 STARTS4.62 ERA · 25.5% K · 7.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
23%
17%
15%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderCurveballChangeupSinkerCutter
Clay Holmes
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
2.86
IP
56.2
K/9
7.3
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.16
L5 STARTS3.88 ERA · 23.9% K · 8.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
19%
15%
9%
SinkerSweeperChangeupCurveballCutter
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL CHC

Game Markets

STL @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

34%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore CHC by 0.30 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 5.03, CHC 4.73
  • Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Clay Holmes (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

12%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against CHC
CH

Clay Holmes

CHC SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

55%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

41%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 24% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MATTHEW LIBERATORE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.1%OPS-against.806
vs Left-handedK%24.8%OPS-against.926
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.738K%21.8%

CLAY HOLMES SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%23.6%OPS-against.476
vs Left-handedK%19.0%OPS-against.634
STL vs LHP (team)OPS.692K%18.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

CHC BATTERS vs MATTHEW LIBERATORE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs CLAY HOLMES

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 0·CHC 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 5·CHC 5
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%STL
STL 153 · CHC 141 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-30CHC 4-2
2026-07-29STL 3-2 · One-run game
2026-07-28CHC 10-2 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL40¢ · 40%
CHC64¢ · 64%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5— · —
CHC +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA
-15 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

CHC OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 7mph in from CF
WRIGLEY FIELD
95HR
HR factor0.95 · below avg
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Wind-dependent — check gametime.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind7 mph in from CF
Humidity83%
Rain2%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO