BETFLYAISIGN IN
SEATTLESEA
57-65 · +3 AL WEST · W1 · 3-7 L10
@FRI 8:10 PM ETHOU HOME PARK
62-60 · +1 AL WEST · W1 · 5-5 L10
HOUSTONHOU
Weather
84°F · 10mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
George Kirby
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+102
ERA
3.68
IP
132.0
K/9
7.6
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.27
L5 STARTS3.21 ERA · 18.9% K · 3.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
29%
21%
10%
Sweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveballChangeupCutter
Peter Lambert
RHP · HOUPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
3.09
IP
113.2
K/9
8.8
BB/9
3.5
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS2.98 ERA · 25.4% K · 9.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
22%
17%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSliderCutterSinkerSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETAstros 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SEA HOU

Game Markets

SEA @ HOU · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

HOU F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

HOU -1.5

37%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.26 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SEA 4.07, HOU 4.19
  • George Kirby (SEA) vs Peter Lambert (HOU)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
GK

George Kirby

SEA SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

93%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

70%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.6 strikeouts
  • 49% to reach 5+ against HOU
PL

Peter Lambert

HOU SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.7 strikeouts
  • 53% to reach 5+ against SEA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

GEORGE KIRBY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how HOU hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.4%OPS-against.722
vs Left-handedK%18.1%OPS-against.763
HOU vs RHP (team)OPS.741K%21.6%

PETER LAMBERT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.737
vs Left-handedK%24.7%OPS-against.505
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.699K%22.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

HOU BATTERS vs GEORGE KIRBY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SEA BATTERS vs PETER LAMBERT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SEA 0·HOU 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
SEA 7·HOU 1
8 played · 11 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%HOU
SEA 101 · HOU 130 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-14SEA 8-3
2026-05-14HOU 4-3 · One-run game
2026-05-13SEA 10-2 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SEA48¢ · 48%
HOU56¢ · 56%
Total 8
Over53¢ · 53%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
SEA -1.5— · —
HOU +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SEA OFFENSE

.282L15 team wOBA
-34 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

HOU OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT84° · 10mph out to CF
MINUTE MAID PARK
98HR
HR factor0.98 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Neutral — Crawford Boxes LF-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
84°F
Wind10 mph out to CF
Humidity67%
Rain5%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO