MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Gavin Williams · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
SD @ CLE · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
63%
1st 5 Innings
CLE F5
52%
Game Total
Over 8.5
37%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
40%
Run Line
CLE -1.5
43%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
28%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore SD by 0.98 runs across 5,000 trials.
SD SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
36%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
1%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
46%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.
CLE SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
95%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
62%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
44%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
95%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
51%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
41%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
26%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Pitcher-friendly.
Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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