MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Shane Bieber · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYY @ TOR · full-game reads
Moneyline
NYY to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
TOR F5
35%
Game Total
Over 8.5
55%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
TOR -1.5
27%
Team Total
NYY Over 4.5
54%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
NYY projects to outscore TOR by 1.03 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYY SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
59%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
39%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
12%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
96%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
52%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.
TOR SP · vs. NYY
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
41%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
84%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
36%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
65%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
51%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight HR boost.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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