MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Yoshinobu Yamamoto · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks
K projection runs under in this matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
MIL @ LAD · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAD to win
55%
1st 5 Innings
LAD F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
39%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
44%
Run Line
LAD -1.5
37%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
34%
Team Total
LAD Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
LAD projects to outscore MIL by 0.30 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIL SP · vs. LAD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
32%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
57%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
19%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
LAD SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
72%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
55%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
13%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
94%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
78%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly, low BABIP.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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