MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
CIN2 · spread
Burns has the rotation edge
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Chase Burns · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
early-trouble profile vs a patient lineup
Sandy Alcantara · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
MIA @ CIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
CIN to win
63%
1st 5 Innings
CIN F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
56%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
53%
Run Line
CIN -1.5
46%
Team Total
MIA Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
56%
THE READ
CIN projects to outscore MIA by 1.10 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIA SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
49%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
15%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
100%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
98%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
87%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
79%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
CIN SP · vs. MIA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
28%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
89%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
24%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
34%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
League’s hottest HR park.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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