MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Grayson Rodriguez · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
contact lineup limits the K ceiling
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
KC @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
LAA to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
60%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
63%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
38%
Team Total
KC Over 4.5
50%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
52%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 10.10 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
KC SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
98%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
69%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
78%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
67%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
LAA SP · vs. KC
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
51%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
21%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
39%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight pitcher tilt.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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