BETFLYAISIGN IN
COLORADOCOL
48-73 · +5 NL WEST · W2 · 4-6 L10
@FRI 10:15 PM ETSF HOME PARK
50-71 · +4 NL WEST · L1 · 3-7 L10
SAN FRANCISCOSF
Weather
61°F · 13mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kyle Freeland
LHP · COLPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
6.63
IP
112.2
K/9
7.7
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.50
L5 STARTS4.47 ERA · 19.8% K · 6.1% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
22%
21%
15%
12%
4-Seam FastballCurveballCutterChangeupSweeperSinker
Landen Roupp
RHP · SFPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
4.22
IP
123.2
K/9
8.9
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.29
L5 STARTS4.24 ERA · 17.1% K · 13.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
26%
20%
14%
SinkerCurveballChangeupCutter4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Kyle Freeland · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

K projection runs under in this matchup

-138 FanDuel58% book75% +17pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGiants 63%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

COL SF

Game Markets

COL @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SF to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

51%

Game Total

Over 8.5

48%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

49%

Run Line

SF -1.5

44%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

50%

THE READ

SF projects to outscore COL by 1.02 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: COL 3.84, SF 4.86
  • Kyle Freeland (COL) vs Landen Roupp (SF)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KF

Kyle Freeland

COL SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 41% to reach 5+ against SF
LR

Landen Roupp

SF SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

69%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 55% to reach 5+ against COL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KYLE FREELAND SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SF hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.0%OPS-against.931
vs Left-handedK%21.2%OPS-against.730
SF vs RHP (team)OPS.730K%20.2%

LANDEN ROUPP SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.4%OPS-against.677
vs Left-handedK%22.9%OPS-against.648
COL vs LHP (team)OPS.708K%24.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SF BATTERS vs KYLE FREELAND

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

COL BATTERS vs LANDEN ROUPP

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
COL 0·SF 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
COL 6·SF 6
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%SF
COL 133 · SF 192 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-12SF 3-1
2026-07-11SF 4-2
2026-07-11COL 4-3 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
COL48¢ · 48%
SF56¢ · 56%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
COL -1.5— · —
SF +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→7.5→8→7.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

COL OFFENSE

.317L15 team wOBA
+1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

SF OFFENSE

.268L15 team wOBA
-48 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT61° · 13mph out to CF
ORACLE PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.90 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Marine air kills carry to RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
61°F
Wind13 mph out to CF
Humidity87%
Rain0%

Wind out to CF · HR tailwind.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO