BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
65-56 · +3 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@FRI 6:40 PM ETPIT HOME PARK
59-64 · +5 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
75°F · 2mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Jake Bennett
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
3.17
IP
76.2
K/9
6.5
BB/9
1.9
WHIP
1.04
L5 STARTS4.24 ERA · 16.3% K · 6.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
28%
26%
4-Seam FastballSinkerChangeup
Bubba Chandler
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+104
ERA
4.26
IP
116.1
K/9
8.0
BB/9
4.8
WHIP
1.38
L5 STARTS2.47 ERA · 22.2% K · 9.3% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
18%
17%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerSweeperCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS PIT

Game Markets

BOS @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

29%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore PIT by 0.63 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.85, PIT 4.23
  • Jake Bennett (BOS) vs Bubba Chandler (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JB

Jake Bennett

BOS SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

56%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

57%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.9 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.9 strikeouts
  • 35% to reach 5+ against PIT
BC

Bubba Chandler

PIT SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 38% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

JAKE BENNETT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.9%OPS-against.644
vs Left-handedK%21.3%OPS-against.434
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.769K%23.5%

BUBBA CHANDLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.600
vs Left-handedK%19.1%OPS-against.747
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.768K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs JAKE BENNETT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs BUBBA CHANDLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 1·PIT 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%PIT
BOS 34 · PIT 36 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-22BOS 6-3
2026-03-08PIT 9-7 · Slugfest
2026-02-24PIT 16-7 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS59¢ · 59%
PIT45¢ · 45%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
PIT +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→7.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.349L15 team wOBA
+33 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

PIT OFFENSE

.277L15 team wOBA
-39 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT75° · 2mph out to CF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
75°F
Wind2 mph out to CF
Humidity87%
Rain8%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO