MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS
TB2 · spread
TB side — model edge vs the line
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BAL @ TB · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
50%
1st 5 Innings
TB F5
42%
Game Total
Over 8.5
43%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
50%
Run Line
TB -1.5
33%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
41%
Team Total
TB Over 4.5
38%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.15 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
BAL SP · vs. TB
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
63%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
29%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
55%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
41%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
TB SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
42%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
21%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
31%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TB hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Interim park post-Tropicana damage.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Neutral zone — no K% edge either side.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read
BetFly publishes sports predictions for informational and entertainment purposes only — not financial, investment, or wagering advice. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Must be 21+. Not available in all states.