MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Jacob deGrom · Over 6.5 7+ Ks
elite swing-and-miss stuff
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
TEX @ LAA · full-game reads
Moneyline
TEX to win
59%
1st 5 Innings
LAA F5
34%
Game Total
Over 8.5
41%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
39%
Run Line
LAA -1.5
24%
Team Total
TEX Over 4.5
45%
Team Total
LAA Over 4.5
29%
THE READ
TEX projects to outscore LAA by 1.12 runs across 5,000 trials.
TEX SP · vs. LAA
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
90%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
78%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
28%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
66%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
14%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
34%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
22%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
LAA SP · vs. TEX
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
57%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
38%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
4%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
45%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
8%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAA hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TEX hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight pitcher tilt.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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