ST. LOUISSTL
61-60 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 7-3 L10
@2026-08-13CHC HOME PARK
71-51 · +2 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 8-2 L10
CHICAGOCHC
Weather
72°F · 5mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETCardinals 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

STL CHC

Game Markets

STL @ CHC · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

STL to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

CHC F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

57%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

57%

Run Line

CHC -1.5

34%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

50%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

48%

THE READ

STL projects to outscore CHC by 0.29 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: STL 4.98, CHC 4.69
  • Matthew Liberatore (STL) vs Clay Holmes (CHC)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ML

Matthew Liberatore

STL SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

54%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against CHC
CH

Clay Holmes

CHC SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

38%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

51%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against STL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

CHC vs LHP (team)OPS.806K%21.8%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

STL vs RHP (team)OPS.696K%21.3%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CHC BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

STL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
STL 0·CHC 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
STL 5·CHC 5
10 played · 9 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%STL
STL 153 · CHC 141 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-30CHC 4-2
2026-07-29STL 3-2 · One-run game
2026-07-28CHC 10-2 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
STL40¢ · 40%
CHC64¢ · 64%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
STL -1.5 ·
CHC +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT88.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

STL OFFENSE

.301L15 team wOBA
-15 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

CHC OFFENSE

.315L15 team wOBA
-1 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
ENVIRONMENT72° · 5mph in from CF
WRIGLEY FIELD
95HR
HR factor0.95 · below avg
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Wind-dependent — check gametime.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
72°F
Wind5 mph in from CF
Humidity90%
Rain58%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

CARDINALS 51%

Mean score sim 5.04.7 · projected total 9.7 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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