BETFLYAISIGN IN
SEATTLESEA
56-65 · +3 AL WEST · L6 · 3-7 L10
@THU 1:35 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
68-52 · +2 AL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
83°F · 11mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Logan Gilbert
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+109
ERA
3.42
IP
139.1
K/9
9.4
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.00
L5 STARTS4.41 ERA · 23.8% K · 7.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
23%
14%
8%
4-Seam FastballSliderSplit-FingerCurveballChangeupCutter
Max Fried
LHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+106
ERA
2.88
IP
81.1
K/9
8.3
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
0.97
L5 STARTS2.84 ERA · 31.8% K · 8.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
22%
22%
17%
14%
14%
10%
CutterSinker4-Seam FastballCurveballChangeupSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Max Fried · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks

modest K rate + contact-shy opp

+115 Bovada47% book60% +14pp

Logan Gilbert · Over 6.5 7+ Ks

strikeout machine on the bump

-140 FanDuel58% book66% +8pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETYankees 53%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SEA NYY

Game Markets

SEA @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYY to win

53%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

44%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

35%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.24 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: SEA 4.10, NYY 4.14
  • Logan Gilbert (SEA) vs Max Fried (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LG

Logan Gilbert

SEA SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

92%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

81%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

32%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

94%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

70%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.5 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.5 strikeouts
  • 92% to reach 5+ against NYY
MF

Max Fried

NYY SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

57%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

54%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

48%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.1 strikeouts
  • 57% to reach 5+ against SEA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LOGAN GILBERT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%21.1%OPS-against.687
vs Left-handedK%30.4%OPS-against.627
NYY vs LHP (team)OPS.727K%24.9%

MAX FRIED SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.6%OPS-against.542
vs Left-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.397
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.701K%22.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs LOGAN GILBERT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SEA BATTERS vs MAX FRIED

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SEA 0·NYY 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
SEA 1·NYY 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
66%NYY
SEA 38 · NYY 73 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12NYY 10-5 · Slugfest
2026-08-11NYY 4-1
2026-04-01NYY 5-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SEA45¢ · 45%
NYY59¢ · 59%
Total 15.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
SEA -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8→15.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SEA OFFENSE

.285L15 team wOBA
-31 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYY OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT83° · 11mph out to RF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
83°F
Wind11 mph out to RF
Humidity56%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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