SAN DIEGOSD
65-57 · +2 NL WEST · W5 · 7-3 L10
@2026-08-13CLE HOME PARK
59-63 · +4 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
CLEVELANDCLE
Weather
76°F · 3mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 64%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SD CLE

Game Markets

SD @ CLE · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

64%

1st 5 Innings

CLE F5

53%

Game Total

Over 8.5

37%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

CLE -1.5

44%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

28%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore SD by 1.00 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SD 3.29, CLE 4.29
  • Michael King (SD) vs Gavin Williams (CLE)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MK

Michael King

SD SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

40%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.1 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.1 strikeouts
  • 40% to reach 5+ against CLE
GW

Gavin Williams

CLE SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

96%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

80%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

65%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

47%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

97%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

59%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

43%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 8.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 8.4 strikeouts
  • 96% to reach 5+ against SD

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.663K%22.6%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

SD vs RHP (team)OPS.705K%21.9%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CLE BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SD BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SD 0·CLE 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
SD 1·CLE 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%SD
SD 31 · CLE 24 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-14SD 8-5
2026-03-07CLE 7-1 · Blowout
2025-04-02SD 5-2
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SD48¢ · 48%
CLE57¢ · 57%
Total 7.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
SD -1.5 ·
CLE +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
LINEUP FORM · L15

SD OFFENSE

.321L15 team wOBA
+5 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

CLE OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT76° · 3mph in from CF
PROGRESSIVE FIELD
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
76°F
Wind3 mph in from CF
Humidity85%
Rain1%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

GUARDIANS 64%

Mean score sim 3.34.3 · projected total 7.6 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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