BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
58-64 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L3 · 2-8 L10
@THU 1:10 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
62-59 · +3 NL EAST · W4 · 6-4 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
89°F · 4mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Braxton Ashcraft
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
4.08
IP
132.1
K/9
9.9
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.16
L5 STARTS7.88 ERA · 21.5% K · 6.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
31%
26%
23%
15%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerSplit-Finger
Tyler Phillips
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
3.47
IP
93.1
K/9
6.8
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS4.24 ERA · 18.1% K · 6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
25%
24%
24%
17%
9%
SinkerSweeperSplit-FingerCurveball4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT MIA

Game Markets

PIT @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

28%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

34%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore MIA by 0.90 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.69, MIA 3.79
  • Braxton Ashcraft (PIT) vs Tyler Phillips (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BA

Braxton Ashcraft

PIT SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

37%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.9 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against MIA
TP

Tyler Phillips

MIA SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

35%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

4%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

76%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

69%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

56%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.8 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRAXTON ASHCRAFT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.641
vs Left-handedK%29.2%OPS-against.744
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.741K%21.0%

TYLER PHILLIPS SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.3%OPS-against.649
vs Left-handedK%17.6%OPS-against.776
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.764K%23.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs BRAXTON ASHCRAFT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs TYLER PHILLIPS

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 0·MIA 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
PIT 1·MIA 4
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
59%PIT
PIT 55 · MIA 38 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12MIA 8-2 · Blowout
2026-08-11MIA 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-06-14MIA 4-2
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT56¢ · 56%
MIA48¢ · 48%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.268L15 team wOBA
-48 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIA OFFENSE

.324L15 team wOBA
+8 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT89° · 4mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
89°F
Wind4 mph out to LF
Humidity69%
Rain5%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO