MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Aaron Nola · Under 16.5 <17 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Taj Bradley · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Taj Bradley · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PHI @ MIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
MIN F5
43%
Game Total
Over 8.5
40%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
45%
Run Line
MIN -1.5
33%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
38%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
37%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 7.96 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
PHI SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
68%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
48%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
30%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
16%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
7%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
88%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
20%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
52%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
38%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.
MIN SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
80%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
65%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
46%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
29%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
41%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
49%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
35%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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