MIAMIMIA
62-60 · +3 NL EAST · L1 · 5-5 L10
@2026-08-13CIN HOME PARK
58-62 · +4 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
CINCINNATICIN
Weather
81°F · 4mph in from CF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETReds 62%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIA CIN

Game Markets

MIA @ CIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CIN to win

62%

1st 5 Innings

CIN F5

53%

Game Total

Over 8.5

56%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

CIN -1.5

45%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

CIN Over 4.5

55%

THE READ

CIN projects to outscore MIA by 1.04 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIA 4.28, CIN 5.32
  • Sandy Alcantara (MIA) vs Chase Burns (CIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SA

Sandy Alcantara

MIA SP · vs. CIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

96%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

86%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

77%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 47% to reach 5+ against CIN
CB

Chase Burns

CIN SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

90%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

61%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

26%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

86%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.2 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.2 strikeouts
  • 90% to reach 5+ against MIA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

CIN vs LHP (team)OPS.740K%24.8%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.737K%21.1%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

CIN BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIA BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIA 0·CIN 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIA 2·CIN 2
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
58%CIN
MIA 42 · CIN 59 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-04-09MIA 8-1 · Blowout
2026-04-08MIA 7-4
2026-04-07CIN 6-3
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIA50¢ · 50%
CIN53¢ · 53%
Total 8
Over54¢ · 54%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
MIA -1.5 ·
CIN +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

MIA OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

CIN OFFENSE

.287L15 team wOBA
-29 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT81° · 4mph in from CF
GREAT AMERICAN BALL PARK
118HR
HR factor1.18 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

League’s hottest HR park.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind4 mph in from CF
Humidity88%
Rain14%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

REDS 62%

Mean score sim 4.35.3 · projected total 9.6 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

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