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CLEVELANDCLE
59-62 · +4 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
@THU 1:10 PM ETDET HOME PARK
59-61 · +3 AL CENTRAL · L1 · 7-3 L10
DETROITDET
Weather
81°F · 2mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Parker Messick
LHP · CLEPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
2.57
IP
136.2
K/9
9.0
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.04
L5 STARTS1.83 ERA · 22.7% K · 5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
24%
17%
11%
4-Seam FastballChangeupSinkerCurveballCutterSlider
Keider Montero
RHP · DETPROBABLE
STUFF+94
ERA
3.38
IP
122.1
K/9
6.3
BB/9
2.1
WHIP
1.01
L5 STARTS3.70 ERA · 20% K · 5.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
32%
22%
17%
15%
14%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSliderCurveballChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETGuardians 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CLE DET

Game Markets

CLE @ DET · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CLE to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

DET F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

DET -1.5

27%

Team Total

CLE Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

DET Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

CLE projects to outscore DET by 0.80 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: CLE 4.51, DET 3.71
  • Parker Messick (CLE) vs Keider Montero (DET)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PM

Parker Messick

CLE SP · vs. DET

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

79%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

49%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

57%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

43%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.3 strikeouts
  • 62% to reach 5+ against DET
KM

Keider Montero

DET SP · vs. CLE

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

15%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

72%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

35%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

49%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.8 strikeouts
  • 15% to reach 5+ against CLE

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PARKER MESSICK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.1%OPS-against.584
vs Left-handedK%22.2%OPS-against.687
DET vs RHP (team)OPS.735K%22.6%

KEIDER MONTERO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.596
vs Left-handedK%15.3%OPS-against.631
CLE vs LHP (team)OPS.664K%22.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

DET BATTERS vs PARKER MESSICK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CLE BATTERS vs KEIDER MONTERO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CLE 1·DET 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CLE 8·DET 1
9 played · 10 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
56%CLE
CLE 170 · DET 134 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12CLE 6-4
2026-08-11DET 6-4
2026-06-14CLE 0-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CLE54¢ · 54%
DET50¢ · 50%
Total 8
Over54¢ · 54%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
CLE -1.5— · —
DET +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CLE OFFENSE

.303L15 team wOBA
-13 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

DET OFFENSE

.354L15 team wOBA
+38 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 2mph out to LF
COMERICA PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.97 · neutral
Doubles factor1.08 · +

Deep LC/RC. Suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind2 mph out to LF
Humidity61%
Rain3%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO