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CHICAGOCHC
71-50 · +2 NL CENTRAL · W3 · 8-2 L10
@THU 4:05 PM ETWSH HOME PARK
59-63 · +4 NL EAST · L2 · 4-6 L10
WASHINGTONWSH
Weather
92°F · 9mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 2-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Kevin Gausman
RHP · CHCPROBABLE
STUFF+97
ERA
4.29
IP
134.1
K/9
8.8
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS4.29 ERA · 19% K · 6.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
51%
39%
10%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
Cade Cavalli
RHP · WSHPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
3.57
IP
128.2
K/9
9.9
BB/9
2.7
WHIP
1.30
L5 STARTS2.70 ERA · 26.1% K · 5.9% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
28%
16%
11%
8%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSinkerSweeperChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Kevin Gausman · Over 4.5 5+ Ks

high-K profile + cooperative opp

-150 FanDuel60% book68% +8pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETNationals 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

CHC WSH

Game Markets

CHC @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

49%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

33%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.84 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: CHC 4.53, WSH 4.30
  • Kevin Gausman (CHC) vs Cade Cavalli (WSH)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
KG

Kevin Gausman

CHC SP · vs. WSH

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

70%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

53%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

22%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

13%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

77%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

47%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

61%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.8 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.8 strikeouts
  • 70% to reach 5+ against WSH
CC

Cade Cavalli

WSH SP · vs. CHC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

38%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

11%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

47%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

15%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

46%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.0 strikeouts
  • 56% to reach 5+ against CHC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

KEVIN GAUSMAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how WSH hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%26.3%OPS-against.766
vs Left-handedK%21.4%OPS-against.675
WSH vs RHP (team)OPS.760K%20.6%

CADE CAVALLI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CHC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.0%OPS-against.642
vs Left-handedK%24.5%OPS-against.768
CHC vs RHP (team)OPS.743K%21.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

WSH BATTERS vs KEVIN GAUSMAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

CHC BATTERS vs CADE CAVALLI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
CHC 2·WSH 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
CHC 3·WSH 2
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
52%CHC
CHC 60 · WSH 55 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12CHC 12-6 · Blowout
2026-08-11CHC 8-6
2026-03-29WSH 6-3
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
CHC58¢ · 58%
WSH46¢ · 46%
Total 8.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
CHC -1.5— · —
WSH +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.5→8.5→9.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

CHC OFFENSE

.338L15 team wOBA
+22 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

WSH OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT92° · 9mph out to RF
NATIONALS PARK
102HR
HR factor1.02 · neutral
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
92°F
Wind9 mph out to RF
Humidity37%
Rain0%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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