BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
64-56 · +3 AL EAST · L5 · 5-5 L10
@THU 3:07 PM ETTOR HOME PARK
59-63 · +4 AL EAST · W3 · 7-3 L10
TORONTOTOR
Weather
77°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-3 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Payton Tolle
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+114
ERA
3.20
IP
107.0
K/9
10.4
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.10
L5 STARTS3.53 ERA · 40.4% K · 4.6% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
48%
23%
18%
8%
4-Seam FastballSinkerCutterCurveballChangeup
Max Scherzer
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+91
ERA
7.25
IP
36.0
K/9
6.8
BB/9
3.8
WHIP
1.53
L5 STARTS7.78 ERA · 18.3% K · 10.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
47%
23%
16%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Payton Tolle · Over 5.5 6+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

+108 FanDuel48% book59% +11pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS TOR

Game Markets

BOS @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

32%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

26%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

36%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore TOR by 0.99 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.81, TOR 3.82
  • Payton Tolle (BOS) vs Max Scherzer (TOR)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PT

Payton Tolle

BOS SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

76%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

63%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

21%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

32%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 76% to reach 5+ against TOR
MS

Max Scherzer

TOR SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

34%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

8%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

48%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

PAYTON TOLLE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%32.7%OPS-against.620
vs Left-handedK%18.9%OPS-against.732
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.702K%18.9%

MAX SCHERZER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.5%OPS-against.724
vs Left-handedK%13.0%OPS-against.963
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.768K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TOR BATTERS vs PAYTON TOLLE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs MAX SCHERZER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·TOR 3
4-game set · gm 4 of 4
2026 SEASON
BOS 5·TOR 9
14 played · 5 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%BOS
BOS 163 · TOR 163 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12TOR 6-4
2026-08-11TOR 5-3
2026-08-10TOR 2-1 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS62¢ · 62%
TOR42¢ · 42%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
TOR +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→7.5→8.5→7.5→8→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.350L15 team wOBA
+34 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

TOR OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-22 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT77° · 5mph out to RF
ROGERS CENTRE
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity67%
Rain4%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO