BOSTONBOS
65-56 · +3 AL EAST · W1 · 5-5 L10
@2026-08-13PIT HOME PARK
59-64 · +5 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 3-7 L10
PITTSBURGHPIT
Weather
77°F · 2mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRed Sox 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS PIT

Game Markets

BOS @ PIT · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

PIT F5

40%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

53%

Run Line

PIT -1.5

30%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

49%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

BOS projects to outscore PIT by 0.64 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.89, PIT 4.25
  • Jake Bennett (BOS) vs Bubba Chandler (PIT)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
JB

Jake Bennett

BOS SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

99%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

60%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

71%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

58%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 37% to reach 5+ against PIT
BC

Bubba Chandler

PIT SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

36%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

45%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

10%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 36% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PIT vs LHP (team)OPS.690K%25.7%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.705K%21.6%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

PIT BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·PIT 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
BOS 1·PIT 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%PIT
BOS 34 · PIT 36 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-22BOS 6-3
2026-03-08PIT 9-7 · Slugfest
2026-02-24PIT 16-7 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS58¢ · 58%
PIT45¢ · 45%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5 ·
PIT +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.57.58.58last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.349L15 team wOBA
+33 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

PIT OFFENSE

.277L15 team wOBA
-39 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
ENVIRONMENT77° · 2mph out to RF
PNC PARK
88HR
HR factor0.88 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Pitcher-friendly, deep RCF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
77°F
Wind2 mph out to RF
Humidity80%
Rain0%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

RED SOX 54%

Mean score sim 4.94.2 · projected total 9.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read