BETFLYAISIGN IN
SEATTLESEA
56-64 · +3 AL WEST · L5 · 3-7 L10
@WED 7:05 PM ETNYY HOME PARK
67-52 · +2 AL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
NEW YORKNYY
Weather
85°F · 4mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Bryce Miller
RHP · SEAPROBABLE
STUFF+110
ERA
3.08
IP
79.0
K/9
9.0
BB/9
1.7
WHIP
0.95
L5 STARTS6.02 ERA · 14.3% K · 8.4% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
44%
24%
12%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSweeper
Will Warren
RHP · NYYPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
4.18
IP
114.0
K/9
9.0
BB/9
2.9
WHIP
1.37
L5 STARTS4.62 ERA · 23.3% K · 7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
39%
28%
20%
11%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeperChangeupCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMariners 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

SEA NYY

Game Markets

SEA @ NYY · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

SEA to win

51%

1st 5 Innings

NYY F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

42%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

NYY -1.5

31%

Team Total

SEA Over 4.5

41%

Team Total

NYY Over 4.5

35%

THE READ

SEA projects to outscore NYY by 0.38 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: SEA 4.24, NYY 3.86
  • Bryce Miller (SEA) vs Will Warren (NYY)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BM

Bryce Miller

SEA SP · vs. NYY

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

69%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

50%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

98%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

53%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

63%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

47%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.6 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.6 strikeouts
  • 69% to reach 5+ against NYY
WW

Will Warren

NYY SP · vs. SEA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

58%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

29%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against SEA

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRYCE MILLER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYY hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.7%OPS-against.629
vs Left-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.631
NYY vs RHP (team)OPS.719K%24.3%

WILL WARREN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SEA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%27.6%OPS-against.736
vs Left-handedK%19.5%OPS-against.788
SEA vs RHP (team)OPS.698K%22.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

NYY BATTERS vs BRYCE MILLER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SEA BATTERS vs WILL WARREN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
SEA 0·NYY 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
SEA 1·NYY 3
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
65%NYY
SEA 38 · NYY 72 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-11NYY 4-1
2026-04-01NYY 5-3
2026-04-01NYY 5-0
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
SEA49¢ · 49%
NYY55¢ · 55%
Total 8.5
Over55¢ · 55%
Under50¢ · 50%
Run line ±1.5
SEA -1.5— · —
NYY +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→6.5→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

SEA OFFENSE

.286L15 team wOBA
-30 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

NYY OFFENSE

.284L15 team wOBA
-33 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT85° · 4mph in from CF
YANKEE STADIUM
112HR
HR factor1.12 · +
Runs factor1.04 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Short porch — LH HR heaven.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
85°F
Wind4 mph in from CF
Humidity40%
Rain2%

Light wind in from CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO