BETFLYAISIGN IN
PITTSBURGHPIT
58-63 · +5 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 3-7 L10
@WED 6:40 PM ETMIA HOME PARK
61-59 · +3 NL EAST · W3 · 6-4 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
87°F · 10mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Carmen Mlodzinski
RHP · PITPROBABLE
STUFF+92
ERA
3.51
IP
97.1
K/9
7.1
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS6.14 ERA · 18.6% K · 6.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
25%
18%
12%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSinkerCurveballSweeperSlider
Janson Junk
RHP · MIAPROBABLE
STUFF+101
ERA
4.63
IP
81.2
K/9
6.8
BB/9
2.5
WHIP
1.36
L5 STARTS4.25 ERA · 20% K · 10.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
24%
20%
14%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSweeperCurveballSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMarlins 50%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT MIA

Game Markets

PIT @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

50%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

55%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

35%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

45%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.20 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PIT 4.66, MIA 4.54
  • Carmen Mlodzinski (PIT) vs Janson Junk (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CM

Carmen Mlodzinski

PIT SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

41%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against MIA
JJ

Janson Junk

MIA SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

64%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

16%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

59%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

44%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.1 strikeouts
  • 19% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CARMEN MLODZINSKI SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.6%OPS-against.615
vs Left-handedK%16.4%OPS-against.771
MIA vs RHP (team)OPS.739K%21.0%

JANSON JUNK SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%16.8%OPS-against.604
vs Left-handedK%18.3%OPS-against.860
PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.768K%23.7%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs CARMEN MLODZINSKI

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs JANSON JUNK

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 0·MIA 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
PIT 1·MIA 3
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
60%PIT
PIT 55 · MIA 37 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-11MIA 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-06-14MIA 4-2
2026-06-13PIT 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT50¢ · 50%
MIA53¢ · 53%
Total 8
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5— · —
MIA +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→4.5→5→4.5→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.271L15 team wOBA
-45 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIA OFFENSE

.313L15 team wOBA
-3 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD
— ENVIRONMENT87° · 10mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
87°F
Wind10 mph out to LF
Humidity71%
Rain21%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO