BETFLYAISIGN IN
PHILADELPHIAPHI
64-57 · +2 NL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
@WED 2:15 PM ETSTL HOME PARK
60-60 · +3 NL CENTRAL · W1 · 6-4 L10
ST. LOUISSTL
Weather
100°F · 11mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Zack Wheeler
RHP · PHIPROBABLE
STUFF+105
ERA
2.69
IP
110.1
K/9
10.8
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
0.98
L5 STARTS4.29 ERA · 34.7% K · 8.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
36%
16%
15%
14%
11%
8%
4-Seam FastballSinkerSweeperSplit-FingerCutterCurveball
Kyle Leahy
RHP · STLPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.45
IP
112.1
K/9
7.9
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.34
L5 STARTS2.08 ERA · 26% K · 2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
28%
16%
16%
13%
13%
13%
4-Seam FastballCurveballSliderSinkerChangeupSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Zack Wheeler · Over 5.5 6+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

-132 FanDuel57% book73% +17pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPhillies 63%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI STL

Game Markets

PHI @ STL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

63%

1st 5 Innings

STL F5

28%

Game Total

Over 8.5

39%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

41%

Run Line

STL -1.5

21%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

STL Over 4.5

25%

THE READ

PHI projects to outscore STL by 1.44 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.58, STL 3.14
  • Zack Wheeler (PHI) vs Kyle Leahy (STL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
ZW

Zack Wheeler

PHI SP · vs. STL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

85%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

32%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

68%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

39%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

26%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 7.4 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 7.4 strikeouts
  • 85% to reach 5+ against STL
KL

Kyle Leahy

STL SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.7 strikeouts
  • 31% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

ZACK WHEELER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%31.8%OPS-against.555
vs Left-handedK%29.9%OPS-against.640
STL vs RHP (team)OPS.696K%21.3%

KYLE LEAHY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.8%OPS-against.606
vs Left-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.876
PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%22.6%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

STL BATTERS vs ZACK WHEELER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs KYLE LEAHY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 1·STL 1
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
PHI 1·STL 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%PHI
PHI 57 · STL 58 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-11STL 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-08-10PHI 6-5 · One-run game
2025-05-14STL 14-7 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI62¢ · 62%
STL42¢ · 42%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5— · —
STL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.326L15 team wOBA
+10 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

STL OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT100° · 11mph out to RF
BUSCH STADIUM
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
100°F
Wind11 mph out to RF
Humidity38%
Rain3%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO