PHILADELPHIAPHI
64-58 · +2 NL EAST · L2 · 5-5 L10
@2026-08-12MIN HOME PARK
60-62 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 4-6 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
88°F · 3mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
1-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETTwins 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PHI MIN

Game Markets

PHI @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PHI to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

43%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

46%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

34%

Team Total

PHI Over 4.5

40%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

38%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.12 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: PHI 4.12, MIN 4.01
  • Aaron Nola (PHI) vs Taj Bradley (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
AN

Aaron Nola

PHI SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

68%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

49%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

89%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

54%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

40%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.5 strikeouts
  • 68% to reach 5+ against MIN
TB

Taj Bradley

MIN SP · vs. PHI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

79%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

63%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

16%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

85%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

39%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 79% to reach 5+ against PHI

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

MIN vs LHP (team)OPS.689K%22.2%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PHI vs RHP (team)OPS.712K%22.6%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PHI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PHI 0·MIN 0
1-game set · gm 1 of 1
2026 SEASON
PHI 1·MIN 1
2 played · 17 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
55%MIN
PHI 25 · MIN 30 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-03-17PHI 2-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-03-08MIN 7-6 · One-run game
2025-09-28PHI 2-1 · Pitchers duel
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PHI51¢ · 51%
MIN53¢ · 53%
Total 8.5
Over54¢ · 54%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
PHI -1.5 ·
MIN +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT98.598.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

PHI OFFENSE

.316L15 team wOBA
0 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

MIN OFFENSE

.305L15 team wOBA
-11 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT88° · 3mph out to RF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind3 mph out to RF
Humidity41%
Rain4%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

TWINS 51%

Mean score sim 4.14.0 · projected total 8.1 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read