MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Tyler Mahle · Under 16.5 <17 Outs
quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start
Tyler Mahle · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
contact lineup limits the K ceiling
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
NYM @ ATL · full-game reads
Moneyline
ATL to win
60%
1st 5 Innings
ATL F5
51%
Game Total
Over 8.5
57%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
60%
Run Line
ATL -1.5
44%
Team Total
NYM Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
ATL Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
ATL projects to outscore NYM by 0.82 runs across 5,000 trials.
NYM SP · vs. ATL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
18%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
80%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
37%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
74%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
62%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
ATL SP · vs. NYM
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
47%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
86%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
34%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
HR-friendly, especially to LF.
Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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