BETFLYAISIGN IN
MILWAUKEEMIL
74-46 · +1 NL CENTRAL · L2 · 5-5 L10
@WED 4:10 PM ETSD HOME PARK
64-57 · +3 NL WEST · W4 · 7-3 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
80°F · 7mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Dustin May
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
4.30
IP
115.0
K/9
8.7
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.27
L5 STARTS3.46 ERA · 23% K · 12.4% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
22%
19%
18%
4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperSinkerChangeupCurveball
Robbie Ray
LHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.24
IP
127.2
K/9
7.7
BB/9
4.4
WHIP
1.33
L5 STARTS2.42 ERA · 19.7% K · 13.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
27%
17%
10%
9%
4-Seam FastballSliderChangeupSinkerCurveball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL SD

Game Markets

MIL @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

37%

Game Total

Over 8.5

46%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

SD -1.5

27%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

33%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore SD by 1.07 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 4.83, SD 3.75
  • Dustin May (MIL) vs Robbie Ray (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DM

Dustin May

MIL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

66%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

50%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

35%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against SD
RR

Robbie Ray

SD SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

44%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

67%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

20%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

53%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

39%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 44% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DUSTIN MAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%24.2%OPS-against.585
vs Left-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.750
SD vs LHP (team)OPS.687K%21.5%

ROBBIE RAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.1%OPS-against.679
vs Left-handedK%23.3%OPS-against.691
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.749K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs DUSTIN MAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs ROBBIE RAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 0·SD 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIL 3·SD 4
7 played · 12 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
54%MIL
MIL 75 · SD 65 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12SD 11-2 · Blowout
2026-08-11SD 3-2 · One-run game
2026-05-14MIL 7-1 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL54¢ · 54%
SD50¢ · 50%
Total 12.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8.5→12.5→8→12.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.298L15 team wOBA
-18 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

SD OFFENSE

.332L15 team wOBA
+16 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT80° · 7mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
80°F
Wind7 mph out to RF
Humidity64%
Rain1%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO