BETFLYAISIGN IN
KANSAS CITYKC
49-72 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L3 · 3-7 L10
@WED 10:10 PM ETLAD HOME PARK
72-48 · +1 NL WEST · W2 · 3-7 L10
LOS ANGELESLAD
Weather
70°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Daniel Lynch IV
LHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.45
IP
47.2
K/9
7.0
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.01
L5 STARTS6.14 ERA · 12% K · 8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
30%
24%
24%
17%
SinkerSliderChangeup4-Seam Fastball
Eric Lauer
LHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+88
ERA
4.89
IP
92.0
K/9
5.6
BB/9
2.8
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS4.98 ERA · 12.7% K · 4.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
19%
16%
13%
4-Seam FastballCutterChangeupCurveballSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS2 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

KC2 · spread

IV has the rotation edge

— Kalshi19% book42% +23pp

KC3 · spread

IV has the rotation edge

— Kalshi16% book35% +19pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETRoyals 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC LAD

Game Markets

KC @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

KC to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

33%

Game Total

Over 8.5

58%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

29%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

55%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

43%

THE READ

KC projects to outscore LAD by 0.98 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 5.33, LAD 4.35
  • Daniel Lynch IV (KC) vs Eric Lauer (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
DI

Daniel Lynch IV

KC SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

64%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

47%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

8%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

95%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

82%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

70%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 64% to reach 5+ against LAD
EL

Eric Lauer

LAD SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

59%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.0 strikeouts
  • 18% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

DANIEL LYNCH IV SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.691
vs Left-handedK%18.8%OPS-against.388
LAD vs LHP (team)OPS.750K%19.8%

ERIC LAUER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%15.7%OPS-against.837
vs Left-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.866
KC vs LHP (team)OPS.701K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAD BATTERS vs DANIEL LYNCH IV

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs ERIC LAUER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 0·LAD 2
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 0·LAD 4
4 played · 15 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
51%LAD
KC 24 · LAD 25 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12LAD 5-4 · One-run game
2026-08-11LAD 6-5 · One-run game
2026-03-18LAD 10-4 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC34¢ · 34%
LAD70¢ · 70%
Total 9
Over52¢ · 52%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5— · —
LAD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9.5→9→8.5→9→4.5→9last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.292L15 team wOBA
-24 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

LAD OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT70° · 6mph out to CF
DODGER STADIUM
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

HR-friendly, low BABIP.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
70°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity84%
Rain3%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO