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AI MODEL READ

PRE-LINEUP

HOU vs SF

Houston Astros at San Francisco Giants

Wednesday, August 12, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the HOU @ SF simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

HOUSTONHOU
0·0
SAN FRANCISCOSF
TOP 11-01 OUT

FIELD

HOU DUGOUTSF DUGOUT330395330LIVE · BETFLY

PITCH SEQUENCE

Jeremy Peña (R) vs HP

FB94.3
FB91.7

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Jeremy Peña in this spot

HR
3%
HIT
9%
BB
9%
K
24%
OUT
55%

BATTER PROPS · JEREMY PEÑA

HR YES (O0.5)
12%
HITS O0.5
40%
TOTAL BASES O1.5
24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5
55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

SF to win

41%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

SF -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL SF

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

SF wins F5

51%
LAST PLAYJeremy Peña at the plate · pitch 1 of 2

event 1 / 75 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Houston vs San Francisco Winner?

53%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGEEVEN
LINEUP EDGEHOU

HOU STARTER

Bryan King

AVERAGE
3.8
PROJECTED Ks
103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 58% · 19% whiffSweeper · 28% · 20% whiffSinker · 13% · 11% whiff

SF STARTER

Adrian Houser

AVERAGE
2.7
PROJECTED Ks
101
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

Sinker · 47% · 9% whiff4-Seam Fastball · 19% · 18% whiffChangeup · 16% · 34% whiff

Adrian Houser grades avg (Pitching+ 101) vs Bryan King grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

HOU LINEUP

  1. 1Jeremy Peña (R)hit 70% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    70%

    1+ HIT

    33%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    44%

    2+ BASES

    28%

    3+ BASES

    20%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    50%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Yordan Alvarez (L)hit 78% · HR 33%HOT›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    78%

    1+ HIT

    44%

    2+ HITS

    33%

    HOME RUN

    61%

    2+ BASES

    46%

    3+ BASES

    38%

    4+ BASES

    48%

    RBI

    23%

    2+ RBIs

    56%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Isaac Paredes (R)hit 60% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    22%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    31%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Daulton Varsho (L)hit 59% · HR 11%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    21%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    20%

    3+ BASES

    14%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    34%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5LaMonte Wade Jr. (L)hit 56% · HR 10%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    56%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    30%

    2+ BASES

    17%

    3+ BASES

    12%

    4+ BASES

    28%

    RBI

    10%

    2+ RBIs

    32%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Cam Smith (R)hit 60% · HR 13%HOT·THIN›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    60%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Taylor Trammell (L)hit 58% · HR 16%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    16%

    HOME RUN

    35%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    18%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    13%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Nick Allen (R)hit 50% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    50%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    26%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Vázquez (R)hit 48% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    12%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    22%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    8%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    30%

    SCORES A RUN

SF LINEUP

  1. 1Jung Hoo Lee (L)hit 66% · HR 10%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    66%

    1+ HIT

    28%

    2+ HITS

    10%

    HOME RUN

    39%

    2+ BASES

    23%

    3+ BASES

    15%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    40%

    SCORES A RUN

  2. 2Willy Adames (R)hit 58% · HR 14%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    58%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    22%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    27%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    35%

    SCORES A RUN

  3. 3Bryce Eldridge (L)hit 62% · HR 14%COLD·UNLUCKY›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    62%

    1+ HIT

    24%

    2+ HITS

    14%

    HOME RUN

    40%

    2+ BASES

    24%

    3+ BASES

    17%

    4+ BASES

    30%

    RBI

    11%

    2+ RBIs

    33%

    SCORES A RUN

  4. 4Rafael Devers (L)hit 59% · HR 13%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    59%

    1+ HIT

    20%

    2+ HITS

    13%

    HOME RUN

    36%

    2+ BASES

    21%

    3+ BASES

    16%

    4+ BASES

    29%

    RBI

    12%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  5. 5Victor Bericotohit 57% · HR 11%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    57%

    1+ HIT

    18%

    2+ HITS

    11%

    HOME RUN

    31%

    2+ BASES

    18%

    3+ BASES

    13%

    4+ BASES

    25%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    31%

    SCORES A RUN

  6. 6Drew Gilbert (L)hit 52% · HR 7%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    7%

    HOME RUN

    26%

    2+ BASES

    14%

    3+ BASES

    9%

    4+ BASES

    21%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  7. 7Osleivis Basabe (R)hit 52% · HR 9%›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    52%

    1+ HIT

    15%

    2+ HITS

    9%

    HOME RUN

    28%

    2+ BASES

    15%

    3+ BASES

    11%

    4+ BASES

    24%

    RBI

    8%

    2+ RBIs

    27%

    SCORES A RUN

  8. 8Drew Cavanaugh (L)hit 51% · HR 5%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    51%

    1+ HIT

    13%

    2+ HITS

    5%

    HOME RUN

    23%

    2+ BASES

    11%

    3+ BASES

    6%

    4+ BASES

    20%

    RBI

    5%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

  9. 9Christian Koss (R)hit 48% · HR 6%COLD›

    HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM

    48%

    1+ HIT

    11%

    2+ HITS

    6%

    HOME RUN

    21%

    2+ BASES

    10%

    3+ BASES

    7%

    4+ BASES

    18%

    RBI

    6%

    2+ RBIs

    25%

    SCORES A RUN

EDGE TIER · UNLOCK

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III · EVERY MARKET WE RAN

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One card per hitter and pitcher, plus the game markets — the sim's own number on every line it priced, with the reasoning that produced it.

169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

HOU SF

Game Markets

HOU @ SF · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

HOU to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

SF F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

40%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

48%

Run Line

SF -1.5

25%

Team Total

HOU Over 4.5

44%

Team Total

SF Over 4.5

30%

THE READ

HOU projects to outscore SF by 1.05 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: HOU 4.51, SF 3.46
  • Bryan King (HOU) vs Adrian Houser (SF)
  • Run on confirmed lineups
BK

Bryan King

HOU SP · vs. SF

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

32%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

17%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

74%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

52%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

38%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 32% to reach 5+ against SF
AH

Adrian Houser

SF SP · vs. HOU

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

13%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

0%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

71%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

28%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

60%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

46%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 2.7 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 2.7 strikeouts
  • 13% to reach 5+ against HOU
YA

Yordan Alvarez

HOU · bats L · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

33%

Hits

1+ hits

82%

Hits

2+ hits

46%

Total Bases

2+ bases

65%

Total Bases

3+ bases

48%

Total Bases

4+ bases

40%

RBIs

1+ RBI

49%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

24%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 33% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats L
  • Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
  • Facing Adrian Houser
JP

Jeremy Peña

HOU · bats R · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

73%

Hits

2+ hits

35%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 35% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats R
  • Facing Adrian Houser
JL

Jung Hoo Lee

SF · bats L · slot 1

#1

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

24%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 22% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 1 · bats L
  • Facing Bryan King
TT

Taylor Trammell

HOU · bats L · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

16%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 16% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 7 · bats L
  • Facing Adrian Houser
IP

Isaac Paredes

HOU · bats R · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

24%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

13%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 13% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats R
  • Facing Adrian Houser
BE

Bryce Eldridge

SF · bats L · slot 3

#3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

65%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

42%

Total Bases

3+ bases

25%

Total Bases

4+ bases

18%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 3+ bases — 25% against 21% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 3 · bats L
  • Cold on results, but hitting the ball well
  • Facing Bryan King
DV

Daulton Varsho

HOU · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

21%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Adrian Houser
RD

Rafael Devers

SF · bats L · slot 4

#4

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 4 · bats L
  • Facing Bryan King
CS

Cam Smith

HOU · bats R · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

13%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 12% against 10% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 6 · bats R
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Adrian Houser
WA

Willy Adames

SF · bats R · slot 2

#2

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

61%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

38%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 14% against 12% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

  • Batting 2 · bats R
  • Facing Bryan King
LJ

LaMonte Wade Jr.

HOU · bats L · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

32%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

28%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 58%.

  • Batting 5 · bats L
  • Hot streak, thin underlying support
  • Facing Adrian Houser
VB

Victor Bericoto

SF · slot 5

#5

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

19%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

  • Batting 5
  • Facing Bryan King
DG

Drew Gilbert

SF · bats L · slot 6

#6

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

27%

Total Bases

3+ bases

15%

Total Bases

4+ bases

9%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 6 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bryan King
OB

Osleivis Basabe

SF · bats R · slot 7

#7

Home Run

1+ HR

9%

Hits

1+ hits

55%

Hits

2+ hits

16%

Total Bases

2+ bases

30%

Total Bases

3+ bases

16%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

24%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

8%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 55% against 61%.

  • Batting 7 · bats R
  • Facing Bryan King
DC

Drew Cavanaugh

SF · bats L · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

5%

Hits

1+ hits

53%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

25%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 53% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats L
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bryan King
NA

Nick Allen

HOU · bats R · slot 8

#8

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

52%

Hits

2+ hits

14%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

21%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

7%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 52% against 61%.

  • Batting 8 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Adrian Houser
CV

Christian Vázquez

HOU · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

7%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

13%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

8%

RBIs

1+ RBI

20%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Adrian Houser
CK

Christian Koss

SF · bats R · slot 9

#9

Home Run

1+ HR

6%

Hits

1+ hits

50%

Hits

2+ hits

12%

Total Bases

2+ bases

23%

Total Bases

3+ bases

11%

Total Bases

4+ bases

7%

RBIs

1+ RBI

19%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

6%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 50% against 61%.

  • Batting 9 · bats R
  • Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
  • Facing Bryan King

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

  • Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
  • What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
  • Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

BetFly is not a sportsbook, prediction market, or wagering operator. The model reads above are sabermetric simulation output — not advice or a recommendation on whether or how to bet. See our Disclaimer for the full risk disclosure.