COLORADOCOL
47-73 · +5 NL WEST · W1 · 4-6 L10
@2026-08-12ARI HOME PARK
ARIZONAARI
Weather
101°F · 9mph out to RF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Ryan Feltner · Over 3.5 4+ Ks

K-monster arsenal

+126 FanDuel44% book59% +15pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDiamondbacks 57%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

COL ARI

Game Markets

COL @ ARI · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

ARI to win

57%

1st 5 Innings

ARI F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

67%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

68%

Run Line

ARI -1.5

42%

Team Total

COL Over 4.5

53%

Team Total

ARI Over 4.5

59%

THE READ

ARI projects to outscore COL by 0.45 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: COL 5.30, ARI 5.75
  • Ryan Feltner (COL) vs Merrill Kelly (ARI)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RF

Ryan Feltner

COL SP · vs. ARI

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

3%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

46%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

5%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against ARI
MK

Merrill Kelly

ARI SP · vs. COL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

100%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

82%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

77%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

65%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.6 strikeouts
  • 30% to reach 5+ against COL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ARI hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

ARI vs LHP (team)OPS.785K%17.2%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how COL hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

COL vs RHP (team)OPS.758K%21.7%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

ARI BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

COL BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
COL 1·ARI 0
3-game set · gm 3 of 3
2026 SEASON
COL 5·ARI 0
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
100%COL
COL 166 · ARI 0 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-12COL 3-2 · One-run game
2026-08-11AZ 9-0 · Blowout
2026-05-24AZ 9-1 · Blowout
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
COL41¢ · 41%
ARI63¢ · 63%
Total 5.5
Over50¢ · 50%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
COL -1.5 ·
ARI +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT99.55.59.55.5last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

COL OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

ARI OFFENSE

.309L15 team wOBA
-8 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT101° · 9mph out to RF
CHASE FIELD
104HR
HR factor1.04 · neutral
Runs factor1.02 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Slight offensive tilt.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
101°F
Wind9 mph out to RF
Humidity28%
Rain8%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

DIAMONDBACKS 57%

Mean score sim 5.35.7 · projected total 11.0 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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