MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Framber Valdez · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Foster Griffin · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CLE @ DET · full-game reads
Moneyline
CLE to win
54%
1st 5 Innings
DET F5
40%
Game Total
Over 8.5
45%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
48%
Run Line
DET -1.5
30%
Team Total
CLE Over 4.5
44%
Team Total
DET Over 4.5
36%
THE READ
CLE projects to outscore DET by 0.59 runs across 5,000 trials.
CLE SP · vs. DET
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
54%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
36%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
21%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
5%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
79%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
49%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
60%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.8 Ks.
DET SP · vs. CLE
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
37%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
20%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
10%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
90%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
61%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
68%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how DET hits LHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CLE hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Deep LC/RC. Suppresses HR.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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