MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Luis Castillo · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
K projection runs under in this matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CIN @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
CWS to win
52%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
48%
Game Total
Over 8.5
62%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
64%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
37%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
52%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
54%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 10.40 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
CIN SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
22%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
4%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
55%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
23%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
62%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
49%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
CWS SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
26%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
74%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
37%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight HR boost.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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