BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
64-55 · +3 AL EAST · L4 · 6-4 L10
@WED 7:07 PM ETTOR HOME PARK
58-63 · +5 AL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
TORONTOTOR
Weather
68°F · 5mph out to LF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-2 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Ranger Suarez
LHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+95
ERA
3.32
IP
103.0
K/9
9.4
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.17
L5 STARTS5.57 ERA · 27.6% K · 5.7% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
24%
22%
21%
17%
14%
Sinker4-Seam FastballCutterCurveballChangeupSlider
José Soriano
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+99
ERA
3.24
IP
127.2
K/9
9.2
BB/9
4.2
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS2.65 ERA · 17.6% K · 10.2% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
26%
26%
23%
20%
SinkerCurveball4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSlider
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 54%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS TOR

Game Markets

BOS @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

TOR to win

54%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

44%

Game Total

Over 8.5

45%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

45%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

36%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

39%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

40%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 8.24 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.04, TOR 4.20
  • Ranger Suarez (BOS) vs José Soriano (TOR)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
RS

Ranger Suarez

BOS SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

39%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

37%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

11%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

44%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

31%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
  • 39% to reach 5+ against TOR
JS

José Soriano

TOR SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

59%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

14%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

59%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

RANGER SUAREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%23.9%OPS-against.585
vs Left-handedK%29.6%OPS-against.748
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.700K%18.9%

JOSÉ SORIANO SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%28.1%OPS-against.548
vs Left-handedK%22.3%OPS-against.701
BOS vs LHP (team)OPS.770K%21.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TOR BATTERS vs RANGER SUAREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs JOSÉ SORIANO

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·TOR 2
4-game set · gm 3 of 4
2026 SEASON
BOS 5·TOR 8
13 played · 6 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%BOS
BOS 163 · TOR 162 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-11TOR 5-3
2026-08-10TOR 2-1 · Pitchers duel
2026-07-26BOS 6-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS56¢ · 56%
TOR48¢ · 48%
Total 7
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
TOR +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7→7.5→5.5→7.5→7last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.350L15 team wOBA
+34 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

TOR OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-25 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT68° · 5mph out to LF
ROGERS CENTRE
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
68°F
Wind5 mph out to LF
Humidity96%
Rain37%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO