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NEW YORKNYM
53-67 · +5 NL EAST · W2 · 6-4 L10
@TUE 7:15 PM ETATL HOME PARK
71-48 · +1 NL EAST · L1 · 7-3 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
89°F · 8mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 1-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Nolan McLean
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+108
ERA
3.51
IP
130.2
K/9
10.7
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.16
L5 STARTS2.78 ERA · 30.2% K · 8.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
34%
19%
17%
13%
10%
Sinker4-Seam FastballSweeperCurveballCutterChangeup
Martín Pérez
LHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+87
ERA
3.14
IP
100.1
K/9
7.0
BB/9
3.6
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS2.73 ERA · 18.1% K · 10.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
33%
30%
23%
8%
SinkerChangeupCutterCurveball4-Seam Fastball
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM ATL

Game Markets

NYM @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

50%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

52%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

31%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

48%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

41%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore ATL by 0.57 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.80, ATL 4.23
  • Nolan McLean (NYM) vs Martín Pérez (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
NM

Nolan McLean

NYM SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

78%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

60%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

41%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

91%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

27%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

56%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

42%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.1 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.1 strikeouts
  • 78% to reach 5+ against ATL
MP

Martín Pérez

ATL SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

25%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

65%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

36%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

62%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.3 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.3 strikeouts
  • 25% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

NOLAN MCLEAN SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%30.2%OPS-against.549
vs Left-handedK%27.4%OPS-against.716
ATL vs LHP (team)OPS.714K%21.0%

MARTÍN PÉREZ SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%17.2%OPS-against.634
vs Left-handedK%23.9%OPS-against.676
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.690K%22.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs NOLAN MCLEAN

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs MARTÍN PÉREZ

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 1·ATL 0
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 8·ATL 4
12 played · 7 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%ATL
NYM 161 · ATL 183 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-10NYM 8-5
2026-07-29ATL 1-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-07-29NYM 3-2 · One-run game
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM48¢ · 48%
ATL56¢ · 56%
Total 8.5
Over52¢ · 52%
Under52¢ · 52%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→15.5→8.5→15.5→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.318L15 team wOBA
+2 pts vs LG AVG · MIDDLE THIRD

ATL OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT89° · 8mph out to CF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
89°F
Wind8 mph out to CF
Humidity52%
Rain13%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO