MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Kyle Harrison · Over 5.5 6+ Ks
strikeout machine on the bump
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
MIL @ SD · full-game reads
Moneyline
MIL to win
64%
1st 5 Innings
SD F5
27%
Game Total
Over 8.5
33%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
36%
Run Line
SD -1.5
20%
Team Total
MIL Over 4.5
42%
Team Total
SD Over 4.5
21%
THE READ
MIL projects to outscore SD by 1.49 runs across 5,000 trials.
MIL SP · vs. SD
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
79%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
63%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
44%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
15%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
47%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
10%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
25%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
14%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
SD SP · vs. MIL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
19%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
8%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
3%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
1%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
0%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
29%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
2%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
42%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.1 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Marine layer suppresses HR.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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