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KANSAS CITYKC
49-71 · +5 AL CENTRAL · L2 · 3-7 L10
@TUE 10:10 PM ETLAD HOME PARK
71-48 · +1 NL WEST · W1 · 2-8 L10
LOS ANGELESLAD
Weather
72°F · 5mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Michael Wacha
RHP · KCPROBABLE
STUFF+98
ERA
3.44
IP
144.0
K/9
7.0
BB/9
2.6
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS3.49 ERA · 17.4% K · 8.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
23%
16%
15%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutterSinkerCurveballSlider
Blake Snell
LHP · LADPROBABLE
STUFF+—
ERA
12.00
IP
3.0
K/9
15.0
BB/9
6.0
WHIP
2.67
L5 STARTS12.00 ERA · 27.8% K · 11.1% BB
PITCH MIX

Not cataloged

— MODEL VS THE BOOKS3 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

LAD3 · spread

Snell's ace-tier arsenal vs softer counterpart

— Kalshi13% book33% +20pp

LAD2 · spread

Snell's ace-tier arsenal vs softer counterpart

— Kalshi48% book58% +10pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Blake Snell · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks

stuff doesn't translate to Ks vs this lineup

-135 Bovada57% book84% +26pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETDodgers 59%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

KC LAD

Game Markets

KC @ LAD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

LAD to win

59%

1st 5 Innings

LAD F5

50%

Game Total

Over 8.5

47%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

51%

Run Line

LAD -1.5

42%

Team Total

KC Over 4.5

37%

Team Total

LAD Over 4.5

47%

THE READ

LAD projects to outscore KC by 0.78 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: KC 3.93, LAD 4.71
  • Michael Wacha (KC) vs Blake Snell (LAD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
MW

Michael Wacha

KC SP · vs. LAD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

33%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

7%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

2%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

55%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

60%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 33% to reach 5+ against LAD
BS

Blake Snell

LAD SP · vs. KC

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

30%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

16%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

8%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

3%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

29%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

6%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against KC

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

MICHAEL WACHA SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how LAD hits LHP

vs Right-handedK%18.0%OPS-against.746
vs Left-handedK%20.0%OPS-against.655
LAD vs LHP (team)OPS.750K%19.8%

BLAKE SNELL SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how KC hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%25.0%OPS-against.834
vs Left-handedK%33.3%OPS-against.750
KC vs RHP (team)OPS.710K%20.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

LAD BATTERS vs MICHAEL WACHA

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

KC BATTERS vs BLAKE SNELL

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
KC 0·LAD 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
KC 0·LAD 3
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%KC
KC 24 · LAD 24 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-11LAD 6-5 · One-run game
2026-03-18LAD 10-4 · Blowout
2026-03-07LAD 6-0 · Blowout
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
KC31¢ · 31%
LAD73¢ · 73%
Total 8
Over54¢ · 54%
Under51¢ · 51%
Run line ±1.5
KC -1.5— · —
LAD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.5→8→7.5→8.5→7→7.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

KC OFFENSE

.295L15 team wOBA
-21 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

LAD OFFENSE

.310L15 team wOBA
-6 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT72° · 5mph out to CF
DODGER STADIUM
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor0.96 · neutral
Doubles factor0.92 · −

HR-friendly, low BABIP.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
72°F
Wind5 mph out to CF
Humidity79%
Rain2%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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