MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Sean Burke · Under 6.5 <7 Pitcher Ks
modest K rate + contact-shy opp
Sean Burke · Under 7.5 <8 Pitcher Ks
opp puts the ball in play, holds Ks down
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
CIN @ CWS · full-game reads
Moneyline
CWS to win
58%
1st 5 Innings
CWS F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
59%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
59%
Run Line
CWS -1.5
41%
Team Total
CIN Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
CWS Over 4.5
55%
THE READ
CWS projects to outscore CIN by 0.65 runs across 5,000 trials.
CIN SP · vs. CWS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
28%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
14%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
69%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
16%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
54%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.6 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
CWS SP · vs. CIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
74%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
58%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
40%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
24%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
14%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
87%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
52%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
64%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
50%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.0 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CWS hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how CIN hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight HR boost.
Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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