AI MODEL READ

CONFIRMED LINEUPS

CHC vs WSH

Chicago Cubs at Washington Nationals

Tuesday, August 11, 2026

SIMULATION · ONE TRIAL, EVERY MARKET

Watch the model run this game.

One representative trial from the CHC @ WSH simulation — real per-AB batter, outcome, and score progression from the spine. Every game-level market updates in lock-step with each play.

CHICAGOCHC

0·0

WASHINGTONWSH

TOP 10-11 OUT

FIELD

PITCH SEQUENCE

Pete Crow-Armstrong (L) vs HP

FB92.9

SL83.5

SL84.2

FB95.2

OUTCOME DISTRIBUTION

Pete Crow-Armstrong in this spot

HIT

24%

OUT

55%

BATTER PROPS · PETE CROW-ARMSTRONG

HR YES (O0.5)

12%

HITS O0.5

40%

TOTAL BASES O1.5

24%

PITCHER PROPS · HP

KS O5.5

55%

GAME MARKETS · LIVE

updating per event

MONEYLINE

WSH to win

40%

TOTAL

Over 8.5

58%

RUN LINE

WSH -1.5

45%

TEAM TOTAL WSH

Over 4.5

52%

FIRST 5 INN

WSH wins F5

51%

LAST PLAYPete Crow-Armstrong at the plate · pitch 1 of 4

event 1 / 74 · pitching

Every card on the board is a live read. As the game changes, the math changes with it — every prop, every market line, in real time. Cards turn green when they hit, red when they miss.

I · GAME-LEVEL MODEL

Win probability + total.

GAME WINNER

Chicago C vs Washington Winner?

50%

5,000-TRIAL SIMULATION

our sim and the sharpest books agree

II · MATCHUP BREAKDOWN

Who has the advantage tonight.

The same numbers our 5,000-trial sim ran on — starter quality, projected strikeouts, and every bat in both lineups — not opinions.

PITCHING EDGECHC

LINEUP EDGECHC

CHC STARTER

Shota Imanaga

AVERAGE

5.9
PROJECTED Ks: 103
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 41% · 20% whiffSplit-Finger · 33% · 40% whiffSweeper · 15% · 29% whiff

WSH STARTER

Jake Irvin

AVERAGE

4.0
PROJECTED Ks: 95
PITCHING+

GO-TO PITCHES

4-Seam Fastball · 27% · 23% whiffCurveball · 26% · 41% whiffSinker · 22% · 10% whiff

Watch out: Sinker is getting hit hard lately.

Jake Irvin grades avg (Pitching+ 95) vs Shota Imanaga grades avg (Pitching+ 103)

CHC LINEUP

1Pete Crow-Armstrong (L)hit 75% · HR 32%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
75%
1+ HIT
39%
2+ HITS
32%
HOME RUN
56%
2+ BASES
44%
3+ BASES
36%
4+ BASES
46%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
63%
SCORES A RUN
2Seiya Suzuki (R)hit 73% · HR 26%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
73%
1+ HIT
37%
2+ HITS
26%
HOME RUN
53%
2+ BASES
38%
3+ BASES
30%
4+ BASES
45%
RBI
22%
2+ RBIs
53%
SCORES A RUN
3Michael Busch (L)hit 69% · HR 18%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
69%
1+ HIT
31%
2+ HITS
18%
HOME RUN
45%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
39%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
45%
SCORES A RUN
4Alex Bregman (R)hit 64% · HR 10%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
5Ian Happ (S)hit 64% · HR 21%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
21%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
29%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN
6Nico Hoerner (R)hit 65% · HR 6%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
27%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
34%
2+ BASES
17%
3+ BASES
9%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
9%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
7Michael Conforto (L)hit 63% · HR 19%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
25%
2+ HITS
19%
HOME RUN
42%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
22%
4+ BASES
37%
RBI
17%
2+ RBIs
42%
SCORES A RUN
8Carson Kelly (R)hit 60% · HR 9%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
9%
HOME RUN
31%
2+ BASES
16%
3+ BASES
10%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
38%
SCORES A RUN
9Dansby Swanson (R)hit 56% · HR 14%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
56%
1+ HIT
18%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
32%
2+ BASES
20%
3+ BASES
16%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
44%
SCORES A RUN

WSH LINEUP

1Dylan Crews (R)hit 67% · HR 15%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
67%
1+ HIT
28%
2+ HITS
15%
HOME RUN
40%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
2Andrés Chaparro (R)hit 65% · HR 20%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
65%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
20%
HOME RUN
44%
2+ BASES
30%
3+ BASES
23%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
15%
2+ RBIs
43%
SCORES A RUN
3Brady House (R)hit 68% · HR 14%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
14%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
25%
3+ BASES
18%
4+ BASES
31%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
39%
SCORES A RUN
4CJ Abrams (L)hit 68% · HR 17%HOT›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
68%
1+ HIT
29%
2+ HITS
17%
HOME RUN
43%
2+ BASES
28%
3+ BASES
20%
4+ BASES
34%
RBI
14%
2+ RBIs
41%
SCORES A RUN
5Harry Ford (R)hit 60% · HR 12%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
22%
2+ HITS
12%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
21%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
29%
RBI
12%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN
6Jacob Young (R)hit 64% · HR 11%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
64%
1+ HIT
26%
2+ HITS
11%
HOME RUN
37%
2+ BASES
22%
3+ BASES
15%
4+ BASES
30%
RBI
11%
2+ RBIs
36%
SCORES A RUN
7Daylen Lile (L)hit 63% · HR 8%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
63%
1+ HIT
24%
2+ HITS
8%
HOME RUN
36%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
12%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
33%
SCORES A RUN
8Nasim Nuñez (S)hit 55% · HR 6%COLD›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
55%
1+ HIT
16%
2+ HITS
6%
HOME RUN
24%
2+ BASES
11%
3+ BASES
6%
4+ BASES
24%
RBI
7%
2+ RBIs
31%
SCORES A RUN
9Andrew Pinckney (R)hit 60% · HR 10%›
HIS PROJECTED LINE · FROM THE SIM
60%
1+ HIT
20%
2+ HITS
10%
HOME RUN
33%
2+ BASES
19%
3+ BASES
13%
4+ BASES
28%
RBI
10%
2+ RBIs
35%
SCORES A RUN

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169 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 21

CHC WSH

Game Markets

CHC @ WSH · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

CHC to win

60%

1st 5 Innings

WSH F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

61%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

59%

Run Line

WSH -1.5

26%

Team Total

CHC Over 4.5

59%

Team Total

WSH Over 4.5

44%

THE READ

CHC projects to outscore WSH by 1.32 runs across 5,000 trials.

Projected runs: CHC 5.76, WSH 4.45
Shota Imanaga (CHC) vs Jake Irvin (WSH)
Run on confirmed lineups

Shota Imanaga

CHC SP · vs. WSH

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

72%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

23%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

12%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

64%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

72%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

59%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
72% to reach 5+ against WSH

Jake Irvin

WSH SP · vs. CHC

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

20%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

27%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

36%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 4.0 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

Sim projects 4.0 strikeouts
37% to reach 5+ against CHC

Pete Crow-Armstrong

CHC · bats L · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

32%

Hits

1+ hits

78%

Hits

2+ hits

41%

Total Bases

2+ bases

60%

Total Bases

3+ bases

47%

Total Bases

4+ bases

38%

RBIs

1+ RBI

47%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 32% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jake Irvin

Seiya Suzuki

CHC · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

26%

Hits

1+ hits

76%

Hits

2+ hits

39%

Total Bases

2+ bases

57%

Total Bases

3+ bases

40%

Total Bases

4+ bases

32%

RBIs

1+ RBI

46%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

23%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 26% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jake Irvin

Ian Happ

CHC · bats S · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

21%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

26%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

31%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

18%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 21% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 5 · bats S
Facing Jake Irvin

Andrés Chaparro

WSH · bats R · slot 2

Home Run

1+ HR

20%

Hits

1+ hits

69%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

47%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

24%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 20% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 2 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Shota Imanaga

Michael Conforto

CHC · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

19%

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

29%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

38%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 1+ HR — 19% against 15% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Jake Irvin

Michael Busch

CHC · bats L · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

18%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

33%

Total Bases

2+ bases

49%

Total Bases

3+ bases

32%

Total Bases

4+ bases

23%

RBIs

1+ RBI

40%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

17%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ RBIs — 17% against 14% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats L
Facing Jake Irvin

CJ Abrams

WSH · bats L · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

17%

Hits

1+ hits

71%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

46%

Total Bases

3+ bases

30%

Total Bases

4+ bases

21%

RBIs

1+ RBI

35%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

15%

THE READ

Stands out most on 4+ bases — 21% against 19% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 4 · bats L
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Shota Imanaga

Brady House

WSH · bats R · slot 3

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

72%

Hits

2+ hits

31%

Total Bases

2+ bases

45%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 31% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 3 · bats R
Facing Shota Imanaga

Dylan Crews

WSH · bats R · slot 1

Home Run

1+ HR

15%

Hits

1+ hits

70%

Hits

2+ hits

30%

Total Bases

2+ bases

43%

Total Bases

3+ bases

27%

Total Bases

4+ bases

19%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Stands out most on 2+ hits — 30% against 28% for the rest of tonight's lineups.

Batting 1 · bats R
Facing Shota Imanaga

Nico Hoerner

CHC · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

68%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

37%

Total Bases

3+ bases

18%

Total Bases

4+ bases

10%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 68%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Jake Irvin

Alex Bregman

CHC · bats R · slot 4

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

28%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

14%

RBIs

1+ RBI

32%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 4 · bats R
Confirmed hot — recent form backed by contact quality
Facing Jake Irvin

Jacob Young

WSH · bats R · slot 6

Home Run

1+ HR

11%

Hits

1+ hits

67%

Hits

2+ hits

27%

Total Bases

2+ bases

40%

Total Bases

3+ bases

23%

Total Bases

4+ bases

15%

RBIs

1+ RBI

31%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 67%.

Batting 6 · bats R
Facing Shota Imanaga

Daylen Lile

WSH · bats L · slot 7

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

66%

Hits

2+ hits

25%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

10%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 66%.

Batting 7 · bats L
Facing Shota Imanaga

Dansby Swanson

CHC · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

14%

Hits

1+ hits

59%

Hits

2+ hits

19%

Total Bases

2+ bases

34%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

17%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Nothing separates him from tonight's field — the sim has him within a few points of average across all 8 markets. Highest line is 1+ hits at 59%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Jake Irvin

Andrew Pinckney

WSH · bats R · slot 9

Home Run

1+ HR

10%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

21%

Total Bases

2+ bases

35%

Total Bases

3+ bases

20%

Total Bases

4+ bases

13%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.

Batting 9 · bats R
Facing Shota Imanaga

Harry Ford

WSH · bats R · slot 5

Home Run

1+ HR

12%

Hits

1+ hits

63%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

39%

Total Bases

3+ bases

22%

Total Bases

4+ bases

16%

RBIs

1+ RBI

30%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

12%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 63% against 67%.

Batting 5 · bats R
Facing Shota Imanaga

Carson Kelly

CHC · bats R · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

62%

Hits

2+ hits

23%

Total Bases

2+ bases

33%

Total Bases

3+ bases

17%

Total Bases

4+ bases

11%

RBIs

1+ RBI

29%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

11%

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 62% against 67%.

Batting 8 · bats R
Facing Jake Irvin

Nasim Nuñez

WSH · bats S · slot 8

Home Run

1+ HR

Hits

1+ hits

58%

Hits

2+ hits

17%

Total Bases

2+ bases

26%

Total Bases

3+ bases

12%

Total Bases

4+ bases

RBIs

1+ RBI

25%

RBIs

2+ RBIs

THE READ

Sim has him below tonight's field on every market — his best line is 1+ hits at 58% against 67%.

Batting 8 · bats S
Genuinely cold — the contact quality agrees
Facing Shota Imanaga

IV · METHODOLOGY

How this read was built.

Simulation. 5,000 Monte Carlo trials of this game using real play-by-play data, confirmed lineups, pitcher quality, bullpen depth, defensive runs saved, catcher framing, umpire K-zones, and per-batter rates regressed with empirical Bayes.
What the number means. The share of those 5,000 trials in which the outcome happened — the model's own estimate, not a claim that a sportsbook has mispriced it. We publish it next to the reasoning that produced it and let the settlement record below speak for itself.
Settlement. Every read on this page is graded by Kalshi's own settlement market once the game ends. The post-game version of this page shows what was confirmed and what was missed.

DISCLOSURE

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