Not cataloged
MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Dylan Cease · Over 7.5 8+ Ks
high-K profile + cooperative opp
Patrick Sandoval · Under 15.5 <16 Outs
high-pitch-count grinder in a tough matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BOS @ TOR · full-game reads
Moneyline
TOR to win
63%
1st 5 Innings
TOR F5
54%
Game Total
Over 8.5
36%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
38%
Run Line
TOR -1.5
45%
Team Total
BOS Over 4.5
27%
Team Total
TOR Over 4.5
42%
THE READ
TOR projects to outscore BOS by 1.06 runs across 5,000 trials.
BOS SP · vs. TOR
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
45%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
25%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
19%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
0%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
43%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
28%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.
TOR SP · vs. BOS
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
97%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
94%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
88%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
77%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
65%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
84%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
54%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
33%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
20%
THE READ
Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 9.6 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Slight HR boost.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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