BETFLYAISIGN IN
BALTIMOREBAL
57-62 · +4 AL EAST · L1 · 4-6 L10
@TUE 7:40 PM ETMIN HOME PARK
59-61 · +2 AL CENTRAL · W1 · 4-6 L10
MINNESOTAMIN
Weather
90°F · 2mph in from CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-1 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Brandon Young
RHP · BALPROBABLE
STUFF+96
ERA
3.43
IP
107.2
K/9
7.4
BB/9
3.2
WHIP
1.31
L5 STARTS3.67 ERA · 22% K · 6.5% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
41%
20%
14%
13%
12%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerCurveball
Bailey Ober
RHP · MINPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
4.45
IP
93.0
K/9
6.1
BB/9
2.3
WHIP
1.22
L5 STARTS4.14 ERA · 15.7% K · 5.6% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
37%
32%
16%
10%
Changeup4-Seam FastballSliderSweeper
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETOrioles 56%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BAL MIN

Game Markets

BAL @ MIN · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BAL to win

56%

1st 5 Innings

MIN F5

38%

Game Total

Over 8.5

53%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

58%

Run Line

MIN -1.5

29%

Team Total

BAL Over 4.5

51%

Team Total

MIN Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

BAL projects to outscore MIN by 0.79 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: BAL 5.05, MIN 4.26
  • Brandon Young (BAL) vs Bailey Ober (MIN)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
BY

Brandon Young

BAL SP · vs. MIN

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

46%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

27%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

51%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

64%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

50%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.4 strikeouts
  • 46% to reach 5+ against MIN
BO

Bailey Ober

MIN SP · vs. BAL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

1%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

0%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

94%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

57%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

75%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

63%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.2 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.2 strikeouts
  • 21% to reach 5+ against BAL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

BRANDON YOUNG SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.6%OPS-against.725
vs Left-handedK%15.8%OPS-against.677
MIN vs RHP (team)OPS.740K%21.1%

BAILEY OBER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%21.7%OPS-against.704
vs Left-handedK%12.3%OPS-against.738
BAL vs RHP (team)OPS.713K%23.8%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

MIN BATTERS vs BRANDON YOUNG

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BAL BATTERS vs BAILEY OBER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BAL 0·MIN 1
3-game set · gm 2 of 3
2026 SEASON
BAL 4·MIN 2
6 played · 13 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%MIN
BAL 83 · MIN 94 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-08-10MIN 9-5
2026-03-29BAL 8-6
2026-03-28MIN 4-1
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BAL50¢ · 50%
MIN53¢ · 53%
Total 9.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
BAL -1.5— · —
MIN +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT9→8.5→6.5→9→6.5→9.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BAL OFFENSE

.284L15 team wOBA
-32 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIN OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT90° · 2mph in from CF
TARGET FIELD
96HR
HR factor0.96 · neutral
Runs factor0.98 · neutral
Doubles factor1.05 · +

Neutral.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
90°F
Wind2 mph in from CF
Humidity39%
Rain3%

Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO