PITTSBURGHPIT
58-62 · +4 NL CENTRAL · L1 · 3-7 L10
@2026-08-10MIA HOME PARK
60-59 · +3 NL EAST · W2 · 5-5 L10
MIAMIMIA
Weather
86°F · 7mph out to LF
Home plate ump
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
PITCHING MATCHUP
Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

Probable pitcher TBD

Not yet announced by the team.

MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETPirates 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

PIT MIA

Game Markets

PIT @ MIA · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

PIT to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

MIA F5

36%

Game Total

Over 8.5

35%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

34%

Run Line

MIA -1.5

29%

Team Total

PIT Over 4.5

38%

Team Total

MIA Over 4.5

31%

THE READ

PIT projects to outscore MIA by 0.50 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: PIT 3.98, MIA 3.48
  • Paul Skenes (PIT) vs Eury Pérez (MIA)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
PS

Paul Skenes

PIT SP · vs. MIA

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

77%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

62%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

29%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

17%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

53%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

18%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

35%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

23%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.3 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.3 strikeouts
  • 77% to reach 5+ against MIA
EP

Eury Pérez

MIA SP · vs. PIT

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

86%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

73%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

55%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

22%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

92%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

42%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

49%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

34%

THE READ

Strikeout-heavy projection — the sim has him at 6.9 Ks, with the ladder still live into the 8+ rung.

  • Sim projects 6.9 strikeouts
  • 86% to reach 5+ against PIT

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

SPLITS THAT MATTER

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIA hits LHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

MIA vs LHP (team)OPS.705K%23.3%

SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PIT hits RHP

Pitcher splits unavailable.

PIT vs RHP (team)OPS.772K%23.6%
LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

CAREER MATCHUPS

MIA BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

PIT BATTERS vs

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
PIT 0·MIA 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
PIT 1·MIA 2
3 played · 16 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
60%PIT
PIT 55 · MIA 36 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-06-14MIA 4-2
2026-06-13PIT 3-2 · One-run game
2026-06-12MIA 8-3
MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
PIT55¢ · 55%
MIA49¢ · 49%
Total 7
Over49¢ · 49%
Under56¢ · 56%
Run line ±1.5
PIT -1.5 ·
MIA +1.5 ·
First 5 innings
O 4.5 ·
U 4.5 ·
TOTAL MOVEMENT7.577.57last 12h
LINEUP FORM · L15

PIT OFFENSE

.291L15 team wOBA
-25 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6

MIA OFFENSE

.311L15 team wOBA
-5 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
ENVIRONMENT86° · 7mph out to LF
LOANDEPOT PARK
94HR
HR factor0.94 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.92 · −

Cavernous OF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
86°F
Wind7 mph out to LF
Humidity76%
Rain0%

Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
THE SIM IS LIVE · 5,000 TRIALS

PIRATES 52%

Mean score sim 4.03.5 · projected total 7.5 runs · pre-lineup estimate — refreshes when lineups post

That's the simulation. The called reads — which markets the engine actually likes at today's prices, with the reasoning — publish to Edge and Sharp members.

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