MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Andrew Painter · Over 3.5 4+ Ks
punch-out artist with the right matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
PHI @ STL · full-game reads
Moneyline
PHI to win
49%
1st 5 Innings
STL F5
46%
Game Total
Over 8.5
48%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
STL -1.5
35%
Team Total
PHI Over 4.5
43%
Team Total
STL Over 4.5
41%
THE READ
The sim splits this one — 8.68 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.
PHI SP · vs. STL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
27%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
13%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
6%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
2%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
1%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
45%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
11%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
51%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
37%
THE READ
Low-strikeout projection at 3.5 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.
STL SP · vs. PHI
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
42%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
23%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
11%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
5%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
2%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
83%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
33%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
59%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
45%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how STL hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how PHI hits RHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Light wind out to LF · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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