BETFLYAISIGN IN
NEW YORKNYM
52-67 · +5 NL EAST · W1 · 6-4 L10
@MON 7:15 PM ETATL HOME PARK
71-47 · +1 NL EAST · W1 · 8-2 L10
ATLANTAATL
Weather
88°F · 6mph out to CF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Christian Scott
RHP · NYMPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
3.15
IP
74.1
K/9
11.1
BB/9
3.9
WHIP
1.26
L5 STARTS2.58 ERA · 30.5% K · 6.7% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
50%
23%
17%
4-Seam FastballSweeperCutterSlider
Bryce Elder
RHP · ATLPROBABLE
STUFF+85
ERA
3.69
IP
126.2
K/9
7.4
BB/9
3.0
WHIP
1.20
L5 STARTS2.57 ERA · 18.4% K · 10.5% BB▲ TRENDING
PITCH MIX · SEASON
27%
27%
24%
14%
9%
SliderSinker4-Seam FastballCutterChangeup
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS

Book comparison posts as sportsbook lines and the engine's cycle sync come in — refreshed every ~30 minutes through game day.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETMets 52%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

NYM ATL

Game Markets

NYM @ ATL · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

NYM to win

52%

1st 5 Innings

ATL F5

39%

Game Total

Over 8.5

51%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

54%

Run Line

ATL -1.5

32%

Team Total

NYM Over 4.5

47%

Team Total

ATL Over 4.5

42%

THE READ

NYM projects to outscore ATL by 0.46 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: NYM 4.76, ATL 4.29
  • Christian Scott (NYM) vs Bryce Elder (ATL)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
CS

Christian Scott

NYM SP · vs. ATL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

66%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

45%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

28%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

7%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

40%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

7%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

42%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

28%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.4 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.4 strikeouts
  • 66% to reach 5+ against ATL
BE

Bryce Elder

ATL SP · vs. NYM

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

34%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

19%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

9%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

4%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

1%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

80%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

44%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

67%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

54%

THE READ

Low-strikeout projection at 3.8 Ks — the ladder thins out fast above the first rung.

  • Sim projects 3.8 strikeouts
  • 34% to reach 5+ against NYM

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

CHRISTIAN SCOTT SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how ATL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%28.2%OPS-against.659
vs Left-handedK%29.2%OPS-against.662
ATL vs RHP (team)OPS.743K%21.8%

BRYCE ELDER SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how NYM hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%18.5%OPS-against.768
vs Left-handedK%20.4%OPS-against.624
NYM vs RHP (team)OPS.685K%22.5%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

ATL BATTERS vs CHRISTIAN SCOTT

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

NYM BATTERS vs BRYCE ELDER

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
NYM 0·ATL 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
NYM 7·ATL 4
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
53%ATL
NYM 160 · ATL 183 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-29ATL 1-0 · Pitchers duel
2026-07-29NYM 3-2 · One-run game
2026-07-28NYM 0-0 · Pitchers duel
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
NYM43¢ · 43%
ATL60¢ · 60%
Total 8.5
Over53¢ · 53%
Under53¢ · 53%
Run line ±1.5
NYM -1.5— · —
ATL +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8→8.5→8→8.5last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

NYM OFFENSE

.307L15 team wOBA
-9 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG

ATL OFFENSE

.304L15 team wOBA
-12 pts vs LG AVG · BELOW AVG
— ENVIRONMENT88° · 6mph out to CF
TRUIST PARK
108HR
HR factor1.08 · +
Runs factor1.03 · neutral
Doubles factor1.00 · neutral

HR-friendly, especially to LF.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
88°F
Wind6 mph out to CF
Humidity45%
Rain16%

Light wind out to CF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

UNLOCKS IN--:--:--GO EDGE · $10/MO