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MILWAUKEEMIL
74-44 · +1 NL CENTRAL · W2 · 7-3 L10
@MON 9:40 PM ETSD HOME PARK
62-57 · +3 NL WEST · W2 · 7-3 L10
SAN DIEGOSD
Weather
74°F · 7mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
3-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Logan Henderson
RHP · MILPROBABLE
STUFF+107
ERA
2.70
IP
50.0
K/9
11.2
BB/9
1.8
WHIP
0.90
L5 STARTS2.74 ERA · 31.4% K · 3.9% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
45%
31%
20%
4-Seam FastballChangeupCutter
Casey Mize
RHP · SDPROBABLE
STUFF+90
ERA
3.40
IP
90.0
K/9
8.6
BB/9
2.2
WHIP
1.09
L5 STARTS5.72 ERA · 16.4% K · 7.3% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
35%
25%
24%
11%
4-Seam FastballSplit-FingerSliderSinkerSlurve
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS1 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Logan Henderson · Over 5.5 6+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

+122 DraftKings45% book56% +11pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBrewers 58%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

MIL SD

Game Markets

MIL @ SD · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

MIL to win

58%

1st 5 Innings

SD F5

34%

Game Total

Over 8.5

28%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

29%

Run Line

SD -1.5

23%

Team Total

MIL Over 4.5

35%

Team Total

SD Over 4.5

21%

THE READ

MIL projects to outscore SD by 0.88 runs across 5,000 trials.

  • Projected runs: MIL 3.77, SD 2.90
  • Logan Henderson (MIL) vs Casey Mize (SD)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
LH

Logan Henderson

MIL SP · vs. SD

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

75%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

56%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

37%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

21%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

10%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

52%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

2%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

29%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

17%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 5.9 Ks.

  • Sim projects 5.9 strikeouts
  • 75% to reach 5+ against SD
CM

Casey Mize

SD SP · vs. MIL

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

48%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

31%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

18%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

10%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

5%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

49%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

22%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

38%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

25%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.5 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.5 strikeouts
  • 48% to reach 5+ against MIL

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

LOGAN HENDERSON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how SD hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%35.0%OPS-against.578
vs Left-handedK%31.1%OPS-against.608
SD vs RHP (team)OPS.707K%21.9%

CASEY MIZE SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIL hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%24.3%OPS-against.708
vs Left-handedK%25.4%OPS-against.506
MIL vs RHP (team)OPS.752K%21.4%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

SD BATTERS vs LOGAN HENDERSON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

MIL BATTERS vs CASEY MIZE

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
MIL 0·SD 0
3-game set · gm 1 of 3
2026 SEASON
MIL 3·SD 2
5 played · 14 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
54%MIL
MIL 75 · SD 63 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-05-14MIL 7-1 · Blowout
2026-05-13SD 3-1
2026-05-12MIL 6-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
MIL52¢ · 52%
SD52¢ · 52%
Total 7.5
Over51¢ · 51%
Under55¢ · 55%
Run line ±1.5
MIL -1.5— · —
SD +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
— LINEUP FORM · L15

MIL OFFENSE

.324L15 team wOBA
+8 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG

SD OFFENSE

.329L15 team wOBA
+13 pts vs LG AVG · ABOVE AVG
— ENVIRONMENT74° · 7mph out to RF
PETCO PARK
92HR
HR factor0.92 · below avg
Runs factor0.92 · −
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Marine layer suppresses HR.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
74°F
Wind7 mph out to RF
Humidity80%
Rain3%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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