BETFLYAISIGN IN
BOSTONBOS
64-53 · +3 AL EAST · L2 · 8-2 L10
@MON 7:07 PM ETTOR HOME PARK
56-63 · +5 AL EAST · L1 · 6-4 L10
TORONTOTOR
Weather
81°F · 5mph out to RF
Home plate ump
—
Injuries
No injury concerns
Series so far
4-game set · 0-0 so far in 2026
— PITCHING MATCHUP
Sonny Gray
RHP · BOSPROBABLE
STUFF+103
ERA
2.78
IP
119.2
K/9
8.0
BB/9
2.4
WHIP
1.15
L5 STARTS3.30 ERA · 19.2% K · 7.2% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
20%
20%
19%
18%
17%
CutterSweeper4-Seam FastballSinkerCurveball
Jameson Taillon
RHP · TORPROBABLE
STUFF+93
ERA
5.96
IP
80.0
K/9
8.1
BB/9
3.3
WHIP
1.39
L5 STARTS7.97 ERA · 22.8% K · 9.8% BB
PITCH MIX · SEASON
29%
19%
17%
15%
11%
9%
4-Seam FastballCutterSweeperChangeupCurveballSinker
— MODEL VS THE BOOKS5 edges

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · GAME MARKETS

BOS2 · spread

Gray has the rotation edge

— Kalshi52% book64% +12pp

TOR2 · spread

TOR side despite tougher matchup — lineup edge

— Kalshi24% book35% +11pp

MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS

Sonny Gray · Under 17.5 <18 Outs

quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start

+145 DraftKings41% book62% +21pp

Jameson Taillon · Over 4.5 5+ Ks

elite swing-and-miss stuff

+121 DraftKings45% book54% +8pp

Jameson Taillon · Under 14.5 <15 Outs

quick-hook risk: walks + traffic shorten the start

+125 Bovada44% book51% +6pp

Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.

— ENGINE PROBABILITIES · EVERY MARKETBlue Jays 51%

25 simulated lines · raw sim

1 / 4

BOS TOR

Game Markets

BOS @ TOR · full-game reads

7 MARKETS

Moneyline

BOS to win

49%

1st 5 Innings

TOR F5

42%

Game Total

Over 8.5

52%

1st 5 Total

Over 4.5

56%

Run Line

TOR -1.5

35%

Team Total

BOS Over 4.5

46%

Team Total

TOR Over 4.5

46%

THE READ

The sim splits this one — 9.15 total runs with under a quarter-run between the sides.

  • Projected runs: BOS 4.60, TOR 4.55
  • Sonny Gray (BOS) vs Jameson Taillon (TOR)
  • Run on league-average lineups — refreshes when lineups post
SG

Sonny Gray

BOS SP · vs. TOR

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

42%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

24%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

12%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

5%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

84%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

30%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

65%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

51%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.2 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.2 strikeouts
  • 42% to reach 5+ against TOR
JT

Jameson Taillon

TOR SP · vs. BOS

SP

Strikeouts

5+ Ks

43%

Strikeouts

6+ Ks

26%

Strikeouts

7+ Ks

14%

Strikeouts

8+ Ks

6%

Strikeouts

9+ Ks

2%

Outs Recorded

15+ outs

43%

Outs Recorded

18+ outs

9%

Hits Allowed

5+ hits

47%

Hits Allowed

6+ hits

33%

THE READ

Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.3 Ks.

  • Sim projects 4.3 strikeouts
  • 43% to reach 5+ against BOS

BATTER CARDS
UNLOCK WHEN LINEUPS POST

The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.

— SPLITS THAT MATTER

SONNY GRAY SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how TOR hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%20.5%OPS-against.686
vs Left-handedK%22.7%OPS-against.670
TOR vs RHP (team)OPS.700K%18.9%

JAMESON TAILLON SPLITS

How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BOS hits RHP

vs Right-handedK%22.4%OPS-against.801
vs Left-handedK%19.4%OPS-against.924
BOS vs RHP (team)OPS.704K%21.9%
— LINEUPS

AWAY LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

HOME LINEUP

Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.

— CAREER MATCHUPS

TOR BATTERS vs SONNY GRAY

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

BOS BATTERS vs JAMESON TAILLON

No meaningful career history with this pitcher.

9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).

— SERIES HISTORY
THIS SERIES
BOS 0·TOR 0
4-game set · gm 1 of 4
2026 SEASON
BOS 5·TOR 6
11 played · 8 remaining
ALL-TIME (2010-)
50%BOS
BOS 163 · TOR 160 · since 2010
NOTABLE RECENT MEETINGS
2026-07-26BOS 6-1
2026-07-25TOR 6-0 · Blowout
2026-07-24BOS 6-4
— MARKET SNAPSHOT
Moneyline
BOS61¢ · 61%
TOR42¢ · 42%
Total 8
Over51¢ · 51%
Under54¢ · 54%
Run line ±1.5
BOS -1.5— · —
TOR +1.5— · —
First 5 innings
O 4.5— · —
U 4.5— · —
TOTAL MOVEMENT8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→8→8.5→8last 12h
— LINEUP FORM · L15

BOS OFFENSE

.339L15 team wOBA
+23 pts vs LG AVG · TOP 6

TOR OFFENSE

.294L15 team wOBA
-22 pts vs LG AVG · BOTTOM 6
— ENVIRONMENT81° · 5mph out to RF
ROGERS CENTRE
106HR
HR factor1.06 · +
Runs factor1.00 · neutral
Doubles factor0.96 · neutral

Slight HR boost.

WEATHER · FIRST PITCH
81°F
Wind5 mph out to RF
Humidity93%
Rain8%

Light wind out to RF · neutral HR conditions.

HOME PLATE UMPIRE

Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.

— INJURY REPORTclean
Injury report unavailable.
MODEL READ · EDGE + SHARP TIERS

SPINE READ DROPS AT T−3H

Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.

Free tier: preview only · EDGE $10/MO · SHARP $25/MO unlocks the read

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