MODEL VS THE BOOKS · PLAYER PROPS
Trevor Rogers · Under 17.5 <18 Outs
bullpen-aggressive manager + struggling starter
Dean Kremer · Under 5.5 <6 Pitcher Ks
K projection runs under in this matchup
Best available line across the books we track, shown as data — not an endorsement of any book. Model probability vs the line's implied probability; refreshed through game day. Research, not betting advice.
25 simulated lines · raw sim
1 / 4
BAL @ MIN · full-game reads
Moneyline
BAL to win
53%
1st 5 Innings
MIN F5
38%
Game Total
Over 8.5
50%
1st 5 Total
Over 4.5
54%
Run Line
MIN -1.5
30%
Team Total
BAL Over 4.5
46%
Team Total
MIN Over 4.5
40%
THE READ
BAL projects to outscore MIN by 0.49 runs across 5,000 trials.
BAL SP · vs. MIN
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
50%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
7%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
99%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
67%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
67%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
53%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.6 Ks.
MIN SP · vs. BAL
Strikeouts
5+ Ks
52%
Strikeouts
6+ Ks
31%
Strikeouts
7+ Ks
17%
Strikeouts
8+ Ks
9%
Strikeouts
9+ Ks
3%
Outs Recorded
15+ outs
81%
Outs Recorded
18+ outs
32%
Hits Allowed
5+ hits
61%
Hits Allowed
6+ hits
47%
THE READ
Middle-of-the-road strikeout projection at 4.7 Ks.
The sim can't run a hitter until it knows he's in the lineup. Clubs post about two hours before first pitch, and every bat gets a card with HR, hits, total bases and RBI.
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how MIN hits RHP
How this pitcher performs by batter hand + how BAL hits LHP
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
Awaiting lineup — teams typically post 3-4 hours before first pitch.
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
No meaningful career history with this pitcher.
9 additional batters hidden (small sample or no history).
Neutral.
Dead-still air · neutral HR conditions.
Umpire assignment posts ~24h before first pitch.
Everything above — pitching, lineups, splits, market, umpire, injuries — is free. Our sabermetric simulation engine runs a 5,000-trial forecast at 3 hours before first pitch and publishes the read here alongside spine probabilities, market edge, and per-layer reasoning.
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